China Roars

[pmbguy]

The Big beast Roars in the east while Rome is burning. If history teaches us anything about civilisation and economics, it’s that, Civilisations rise and fall as surely as the tides. A civilisations fall is preceded and caused by economic decline. Whilst, a competing civilisation benefits.

Peace is war by other means. America and China are playing chess, with their allied countries as the pawns........ The heat coming off is palpable, and steadily getting hotter.

Economic decline leads to nationalism, and/or revolt almost anywhere. Lucky for us we are in sub-Saharan Africa, which is being eaten by China’s “procurement department”, who are very busy procuring land and recourses, big gulps at a time all over the place.

America helped create the monster, now the slave “slowly” becomes the master. America has huge military power, will they use it or fade away? I don’t know (The nuclear aspect adds complexity).

I believe we must fit our paradigm with that of China and toss away the old U-S rulebook, as it were
We are China’s pawn already, might as well take full advantage of it.

This is only my humble opinion

[Blurock]

Yes, and you can assist them by recklessly exporting jobs to China without looking for a local alternative first.

[pmbguy]

Agree

With you 100%, But SA needs to be on the right boat with how things play, for the benefit of everybody in SA. In my humble opinion, this is a historical point in time of some significance. An incremental-big shift.
Anything is possible though, history displays many totally unaccepted events.
We have no crystal ball. But we can use the past+current and understand the future in some measure

Am for and with my Country all the way

[pmbguy]

I am South African, born, and pozzy and I love the US and Europe, I live and think in “Western”.
Life is good this way.
But we have to be aware of the real big plays

[Blurock]

I am South African, born, and pozzy and I love the US and Europe, I live and think in “Western”.
Life is good this way.
But we have to be aware of the real big plays

I am glad that you are patriotic. We need more people to put South Africa first and not just think of making a quick buck for themselves. I have many first hand experiences and examples of tenderpreneurs who would not give a s#!t about their own people losing their jobs, as long as they can make a bigger buck by importing stuff that is made locally and available at the same price and better quality.

[pmbguy]

I share your sentiment

[Justloadit]

We have a snow ball's chance in hell, if we think that we will ever become an industrialised nation as we once were.

Firstly our employees have this entitlement attitude, and expect to be paid to be at work, but not to do work, and in my field get paid an above average wage per hour for no qualifications - double what a building helper gets an hour. I have tried many times to see if I can manufacture close to the price as that made in China, but have failed at every attempt.

There is a simple reason for that, the majority of the raw materials come from China, and importing them individually, already places me at a disadvantage, simply because of transport from the factory to my premises, for each group of raw materials, including import duties, taxes and clearing fees. So before I have even started to produce, my material cost is far higher than having imported the complete item, which has one single import, clearing and transport charge.

I then have to contend with employees, late arrival, long tea and lunch breaks, and getting ready to piss of home. Yes I can reduce this, by employing another person who acts as a policeman. After this I note that I get approximately 20% failure of the production line, which requires after work to bring it back to original working condition, and requires a higher qualified person.

It is a failure before I start. I manufacture products for local suppliers, and one of my better customers is complaining that Chinese imported machines are being sold below his material cost price, which off course affects his sales, and ultimately my sales, as we lose orders due the cheaper imported products.

and make no mistake, the quality is of a good standard too.

I have one product which is exported to the EU, and the only reason I get the order is that the SADEC countries have an agreement with the EU that there is no duty on products manufactured in RSA, which places me on par with Chinese made products, and EU will favour products from RSA while the price is the same. If this ever changes, then cheers to those orders.

[Citizen X]

But SA needs to be on the right boat with how things play, for the benefit of everybody in SA.

This hold so very true, in my opinion it's in my best interest for our country to maintain good relations with China. China can't be ignored as a heavy weight in world economics. We benefit from our dealings with them.

[Blurock]

This hold so very true, in my opinion it's in my best interest for our country to maintain good relations with China. China can't be ignored as a heavy weight in world economics. We benefit from our dealings with them.

Yes, they open shops all over the country, employing only their own people and putting South Africans out of work. Some of our tenderpreneurs import Chinese products that could be sourced locally and from SADEC countries. Mr Price imports cheap s#!t from China and export South African jobs. So what is the benefit? Having a Big Brother that tells us that Desmond Tutu is not allowed to invite the Dalai Lama to his birthday party?!

[pmbguy]

The reality is that the door has been opened and we can’t stop it now. Many people have directly or indirectly lost or are going to lose their jobs because of China, it is a sad reality.

We can’t compete with china in almost all manufacturing. We can only go so far until the margins force closure. Not with all SA manufacturing, off course.

There are some ways to make the situation work
Some manufactures may benefit by changing tactics. I suggest manufactures Import semi manufactured goods and Complete manufacture here in SA. (If practical for what it being manufactured) This way we still take advantage from cheap imports, but retain a large percent of manufacture for SA. (Keeping/making jobs)

It is a model that can work.
Guys are making Sinotec TV’s in SA and I believe the base tech to be Samsung. Samsung did not provide a simple rebrand, it is “put together” in SA. (Samsung did withhold some screen tech)

It’s not just gloom and doom, SA can benefit from what is happening, for everybody in SA.

Big Brother won’t go away, it's in how we deal with him and the rest of the world, that counts.

[Blurock]

Assembly plants do provide jobs and is better than nothing. The sad reality is that we are losing our manufacturing skills and with it our global competitiveness. Manufacturing has declined from a historical high of 22% to 12% of GDP.(Deloitte survey) The only manufacturing jobs left are those of semi or unschooled labourers that have no earning power.

Young people no longer want to do apprenticeships or study to become engineers etc. We all want to be managers, HR consultants and sales executives (they are no longer called salesmen, because the job now comes with a company car). Those "soft skills" does not add enough value, however. The time will come that we will have to import skilled people to come and change our light bulbs....

[wynn]

There are some ways to make the situation work

It’s not just gloom and doom, SA can benefit from what is happening, for everybody in SA.

Big Brother won’t go away, it's in how we deal with him and the rest of the world, that counts.

In the Eastern Cape we have witnessed the demise of many traditional small CBD businesses, they failed to adapt and as a result died, they cried about 'There being no business'.
Most CBD's were taken over by hawkers and traditional small businesses tried to carry on as usual instead of changing to suit the new shoppers that followed the hawkers, the Chinese shopkeepers filled the gap successfully.
Traditional small businesses cried about 'There being no business, which was in fact 'bullshit', the face of business just changed, in most instances business actually grew for those prepared to change, witness Ellerines, Pep Stores etc. in fact the Chinese set up a business as close as they can get to any Pep Stores in any town they can.

I believe that as 'whiteys' we need to source Chinese goods as cheaply as the Chinese shopkeepers do directly from China and compete with them directly, I believe that any South African would prefer to buy from another South African rather than a Chinese provided the prices are the same.

As for the manufacturing industry, that ship sailed a long time ago, the Unions cooked that 'golden goose' and ate it too, so don't lose any sleep over it, adapt, why would you put up with the unions and their 'crap' when you can buy what you want when you need it without all the admin that goes with having staff? (I won't go into the way the unions want to close down labour brokers here) the Chinese will get their day as soon as their workers get the idea that they too can hold business to ransom.

[pmbguy]

...the Chinese will get their day as soon as their workers get the idea that they too can hold business to ransom.

The Chinese workforce is getting restless and the rising middle class seeks change, but....the government structure is strong.

According to the Constitution of the People's Republic of China since 1982, the National People's Congress (NPC), China's top law-making body, has the power to elect and force the resignation of the President. By law, the President must be a Chinese citizen of 45 years of age or older. The President cannot serve for over two successive terms, a term being the equivalent of one session of the NPC, which is five years. Also, all the authorities and works of the President must be done under the NPC and its Standing Committee's order.

So no luck there for top down change

Imports from china will increase at some point as a general trend. But, this is only after they take over the world...

[Blurock]

So we just give up and go with the flow? Give up our skills and expertise and put everything, our future, in the hands of foreigners? No, only dead fish go with the flow.

No, we should apply our minds, be resourceful and do something for ourselves. Yes, the unions are killing business, but are we as business owners without blame? All of us can refer to at least one instance of abuse and exploitation by employers.

Heard last night of a 55+ guy employed by a garden services company in Centurion. Started beginning of March as a supervisor for one of their many teams. Had a heart attack first week in April and was admitted to hospital. (Also informed his employer, sympathy the lot). When he reported back for work about 5/6 days later, he was told that he was fired. No pay as he "absconded."

Now, if I lived in Centurion and my garden services did that, I would fire them immediately (and not pay them for the month)!

[pmbguy]

I don’t view business with China as good/bad right/wrong capitalist/communist makejobs/losejobs
It’s not black or white, it’s grey....with colour

I personally believe we should manufacture more, but just modify how we do that to be able to compete. We have enough resources, infrastructure and skills . South Africa has huge potential.


(I would do the same, garden service Centurion story)