What effect does the international credit crisis have on us?

[Dave A]

Looking into the crystal ball, how is the credit crisis going to affect the average South African over the forseeable future?

And perhaps closer to topic here, what is the effect going to be on business in South Africa?

For all the talk about our SA banks being fine, it seems clear we're experiencing an impact. What can we expect and what should we be doing about it?

[Morticia]

For starters, our pension and provident funds have already taken a knock, depending on your choice of investment portfolio.

I also think our banks are not really so fine due to their offshore interests - Barclays/ABSA springs to mind.

Or am I just seeing the glass as half empty? LOL

[Dave A]

My greatest concern is for the employment rate (or should that be the unemployment rate?). I suspect it's going to make everything else look like mere bumps in the road.

We had a run of statements going "SA is well placed to weather the storm." What BS!

The official unemployment rate was a nightmare already before all this started (let alone what might be lurking off the record).

Retrenchments are starting all over already as markets shrink, and in terms of local economic impact, we're still in first round effects.

If I was gov, I'd be focusing everything on attracting investment that would result in job creation. Direct foreign investment into industry. Effective skilling. Competitive labour market practices.

Unfortunately, I suspect gov is going to be too preoccupied on who is going to be in the President's box at World Cup Final 2010

[Morticia]

Couldn't agree more - SA has just lost a multi-billion Canadian investment due to it's inability to provide sufficient electricity. Not to mention the impact on local economy - provision of housing, transport, ect to the inbound workers as well as the thousands of jobs now lost to locals. Surely for that kind of long-term investment one makes a plan???

[I Robot]

Presidency on Presidential Joint Economic Working Group meeting

Joint statement of the Presidential Joint Economic Working Group

4 December 2008

President Kgalema Motlanthe accompanied by Deputy President, Ms Baleka Mbete and several Cabinet Ministers today, 4 December 2008, met the Joint Presidential Economic Working Group at the Union Buildings, Pretoria.

The Presidential Joint Economic Working Group noted the impact of the current global economic/financial crisis on South Africa including various regional and global initiatives taken to respond to the crisis.

It was agreed that we are facing an unprecedented situation which requires urgent action. The meeting reiterated the need for a continued co-operation amongst business, labour and government to mitigate the impact of the crisis on South Africa.

The working group agreed to engage through a special Nedlac task team, on substantive matters related to the crisis and possible solutions. The objective of such an engagement would be to minimise job losses and other negative consequences brought by the crisis.

The task team will report back to a special Joint Economic Working Group in February 2009. The working group appealed to all sectors to do everything in their power to avoid retrenchment and job losses in response to the global crisis.

More...

[Dave A]

I tacked the release above onto this thread for a reason.

Two months later and gov is just starting to talk about the problem. What action steps have they taken so far?

[wynn]

Any how, 'Gubmunt' cannot create 'Jobs'
They must create the climate for business to create 'Jobs'

Now is the time for them to take a 'hit' reduce VAT and other income taxes, lower interest rates and get the Labour Unions to back off of small business to facilitate employment.

[Marq]

In the begining was the plan

What action steps have they taken so far?

Ah - glad you asked ......I am quite confident we are going to have a plan and that action steps have been taken to ensure that a plan is produced.

Anyone from the government being interviewed on any subject relating to anything that Government should be doing or should have done...will give a stock answer...we are going to set up a plan. In this case relating to the current economic crisis that apparently does not exist in this country, this morning on morninglive, the plan will be worked out in in January.

I have yet to hear of any plan that is in action or anyone that is following a plan that has been laid out. They are all still making a plan.

I found the following on a teachers site - It is genuine topic material. I was under the impression that Government employees had a natural ability to make excuses - I now know that they attend courses on the subject.

Making Excuses: Lesson Plan plus Handout

Date: Tuesday, 1 June 2004, at 11:55 a.m.

Lesson Type: Conversation
Level: Upper Beginner

Language Focus: Excuses due to obligations

Aim: To teach students to make justifiable excuses stemming from obligations. To reinforce "can" and "have to" from previous lessons while creating a new application for their use as a team.

Materials: Attached hand-out.

Warm-up: Directed conversation. Find out what your students are doing for the weekend. If one is going to a movie, ask another if they are to. You're looking for someone to say that they aren't so that you can ask, "Why not?"

Intro.: There are different reasons people can't do something. Sometimes it's a lack of ability: "I don't have any money." Try to elicit an obligation: "I work on the weekend."

Lesson: Teach from the attached handout. Review abilities and obligations in the "can" and "have to" forms. Choral and chain drills work well with this handout. So does pair work. Let them ask one another questions about abilities and obligations and have them report back. The handout is designed for just that with a (Q)uestion, (A)nswer and (R)eport layout. Reporting is of course a great way to ensure students receive practice in the third person.

As always, be prepared to demonstrate the meaning of both "can" and "have to" even through those to segments of the lesson are likely review. "Have to" is likely best demonstrated in the context of "no choice."

Application: Do something controlled first. Try creating two teams and then placing two hats at the front of the room. Students come up in pairs and pull pieces of paper from the hats. The "A" hat contains suggestions, the "B" hat contains excuses. For example, student "A" pulls "Berlin, tomorrow" and creates a question: "Can you go to Berlin with me tomorrow?" Student "B" pulls "homework" and replies, "No, I can't. I have to do my homework." Make sure to jump in every once in a while and ask a third student to report on what he/she heard: "She can't. She has to do her homework."

Conclusion: Wrap it up with a few quick questions to confirm understanding by requiring excuses: "Can you cook me dinner after class?"

Comments: This isn't a very difficult lesson and it need not take very long. It can actually be used at the beginning of an unrelated class to simply review "have to" from a previous class. If that is the case, this handout and lesson can be completed in ten or so minutes. If you decide to use this for an entire class, be aware that they may get it quickly. Be prepared to expand the scope of the lesson if necessary. For example, you can introduce them to the difference between good excuses and bad ones.

[Marq]

Back to the future. My take for the new year.

We have been seeing a downturn for the past two months already. December is headed for one of our lowest months of the year (usually one of the highest). Phone is not ringing, emails are few and the hunting has scarce pickings.

I think the knock on effect is going to take hold in the new year and by the end of the first quarter, we are going to see numerous retrenchments and job losses. Companies will be cutting back and the related effects will be felt in all sectors. (bigger than is being felt already)

Inflation will stay the same in the short term as companies try to keep the same profit margins with fewer sales. Second quarter may see a reduction in inflation as the bite comes and scrambling for business happens. Interest rates will probably be lowered as a front runner to the elections more than for economic reasons. They may stay high to attract foreign investment to get us through the rough ride.

Gold should be a safe haven and may stay within the current range to slightly higher levels. I think the r/$ will also stay within the same range as long as Julius keeps his mouth shut.

Cash is king as is the debt free - Get solvent and liquid and expect a fairly long haul. Stay away from the stock market - it is too volatile and unless you play this game on a daily basis it may hurt you.

The downturn may mean downsizing, following your margins and ensuring breakevens are tweaked. If you see a gap - beware it may be a blackhole - there are not going to be many gaps out there. Watch out for bad debts and bad clients. Remember a non paying client is not a client.

Turnaround sometime in the third quarter.

On the other hand, I predict sunny blue skies and wonderful warm days ahead.

[Dave A]

Ah - glad you asked ......I am quite confident we are going to have a plan and that action steps have been taken to ensure that a plan is produced.

Note to self: Do not read posts by Marq and attempt to drink coffee at the same time

[Pap_sak]

I have started to trickle some money in the stock market for the long term - seems like a good bet. Might have a small sale in the shop at the begining of January - having sales before Christmas is just madness in my book - unfortunatly if one shop chain starts the others seem to jump on the bandwagon, bye-bye profit margins. Will be on the look out for auctions - I understand that a few sports shops might be closing soon - and i love my bargains..

[Dave A]

One prediction has come true.

Ah - glad you asked ......I am quite confident we are going to have a plan and that action steps have been taken to ensure that a plan is produced.

And it only took another 2 months

Government, business and labour finalised a blueprint on Thursday for minimising the effect of the global financial crisis on the South African economy.

The economic response plan was put together over four weeks by a panel of senior figures from business, labour and the state who were first convened by Motlanthe in December.

Former top mining executive Bobby Godsell said the plan was aimed at "saving jobs, saving people's houses and saving as many businesses as we can" while keeping the economy as healthy as possible.
full story from M&G here

The government's strategy for weathering the crisis would include:

A national jobs initiative,
I assume this is something new, over and above the existing jobs-for-pals initiative.

Sustained infrastructure spending,
Evidence that the arms deal was too much money didn't stop it from happening. Why hold back on the big infrastructure spend now?
BTW - How are things going enforcing the local investment parts of the arms deals contracts? A good time to call that IOU in!

Finding bridging finance for troubled sectors
I vaguely recall we used to have some funds that did that sort of thing. For example the Land Bank was supposed to help farmers. Does this mean the Land Bank won't be financing private golf estate development deals anymore?

Giving retrenched workers speedy access to unemployment payments and further skills training.
Well, that was the theory right from the beginning, surely. Glad to hear we're finally going to get this nailed down right.

Now what chances of moving this to delivery any time soon?

[I Robot]

Government on response to international economic crisis

Government response to international economic crisis

Following the final meeting of the Presidential Economic Joint Working Group today, the committee has released a framework for South Africa's response to the international economic crisis. The full report is available on the following websites: [1]http://www.gcis.gov.za, [2]http://www.info.gov.za.

More...

[The direct link to the report can be found here]

[duncan drennan]

So what exactly about this "blueprint" is different to any other speech? It is always the same, more jobs, infrastructure spend, bla bla....

How about this:

• Relax labour legislation which will have a two fold effect. Struggling companies will be able to survive instead of being pulled down by dead weight. Smaller growing companies will be able to hire people without the fear that if things don't quite go as planned they have options to decrease their expenditure. Creating a greater flow of employees also allows the cream to float to the top, and places a focus on productivity.
• Spend more on education. Education is the key to our country's success and creates opportunities for people. There will never be total equality, but there can be equality of opportunity.
• Stimulate small business. When people lose their jobs they are often left with little choice but to try and make it on their own. Help them, rather than stifling them. Work with small business (get involved with this forum!) and figure out which legislation is the most onerous. We want the country to succeed - it is good for our businesses!

I am sure that we can all think of more.

[wynn]

So reducing the interest rate on 'primary residence' bonds is a no go? probably because there is no way you can misspend or misappropriate an interest reduction.