The Great Crime Debate

[duncan drennan]

If you haven't heard anything about the "issue" of crime in South Africa over the past week then I'd like to know which hole you've had your head in...

It seems that the death of David Rattray, the AU's peer review report, and Mbeki, Selebi, Mdladlana and Ngkula's comments have stirred up a lot of unrest in South Africa (other than people living in fear that is...)

I'm always asking myself why crime is so violent in SA - why do so many people get killed over cellphones/wallets/etc? I really don't understand it. I wonder if it is related to how much the perpetrator values their own life.

Alec Hogg of Moneyweb has a story from Davos where he speaks about the impact of organised crime in SA, namely wrt smuggling,

It’s clear, for starters, that South Africa is a key nexus in the global supply chain of a trillion dollar plus industry. SA's particular attraction to the world crime syndicates is its supplies of illicit precious stones, rare minerals and marijuana from the continental hinterland.

Key to all of this is the setup of efficient supply chains.

Once the supply chain is in place, various “products” can and are channeled through this distribution network, multiplying the profit. So although a supply chain might have been set up for illicit cigarettes, it can also be used for human trafficking or hard drugs.

I also didn't realise that pirating DVD's is more lucrative than selling cocaine.

Particularly lucrative products for these criminal networks are illicit cigarettes (as half the cost of legal smokes is tax) and pirated DVD movies, where profit margins are massive. As one of the panellists pointed out, the profit on one kg of illegal DVDs is three times that of cocaine – and the punishment, should the pusher be arrested, incomparably light.

So a supply chain implies a few things,

1. Customers/demand - you/me/others are buying products (cigarettes, DVDs, drugs, etc.)
2. Retailers - there is someone selling it, taking their cut
3. Distributors - the smuggling part of this
4. Manufacturers - some one is producing because there is a lucrative market

So there are a couple of options which are basically to break that chain somewhere. So here is something to think about before you buy/pirate/etc.

Otherwise law abiding citizens are fuelling the supply chain every time they buy anything form pirated DVDs and tax-free cigarettes to cheap clothing. They don’t seem to think twice about where they come from and are clearly not making the connection between a global network of sin and its side effect of violent crime.

Another aspect is that there seems to be a high tolerance of the sales of certain illicit materials,

Motorists are virtually mobbed at traffic lights by illegal DVD hawkers; East European sex workers are in abundance at “lap dancing” clubs; designer label knock-offs are openly sold by street traders; “cheap” cigarettes can be bought in public areas; and it’s easier for a school kid to secure a joint of marijuana than a bottle of beer.

Where are the police in all of this? Can a "no broken windows" approach work? How would that impact our economy?

Obviously a large part of the issue is corruption, which Vietnam seems to have taken quite seriously....

As the Vietnamese prime minister told me earlier in the day, his country only started to win the war against crime after it introduced harsh penalties, including the death sentence, for corrupt officials. Supported by a system of promotions for public servants who identify those accepting bribes.

So there is my bunch of random thoughts largely based on Alec Hoggs article, "Criminal tentacles sucking SA" (all the quotes are from that article).

Let's talk about this a bit, we really need to resolve this and the way to win the war is a multipronged approach - from grassroots level up to policy makers, we all need to buy into a better way of life for ourselves.

[Graeme]

Crime

During the "struggle" the huddled masses were taught that "liberation before education" was what counted - quite OK to burn down a school. Some learned how to rob banks to raise funds for the cause. Others learned how to kill policemen (lost a nephew like that). Only when that generation dies out will civilisation return to our beloved country.

[Dave A]

If you haven't heard anything about the "issue" of crime in South Africa over the past week then I'd like to know which hole you've had your head in...

Guilty. In Cape Town on holiday. Before that slogging at work so that I could go on holiday. After that slogging at work paying penance for said holiday. So please forgive me.

The only headline that really raised any real conscious thought was one in the Cape Times saying that crime had halved in the last decade. I'll spare you the exact conscious thought, save that this was sufficient evidence to me that I should not read that paper if my hard-fought-for sense of equilibrium was to remain intact. After that, crime related matters that came to my attention were easily dealt with.

Like the sign advising hikers through Kirstenbosch not to take valuables with them as muggers were about...
The oh so tough yet skillfully disguised burglar guards on the windows of the residences I frequented...
The car guard/attendant in a two piece suit at the church for the Saturday wedding...
The car guard/attendant in the green liveried waistcoat at a shopping mall in Constantia (a particularly nice touch, I thought)...

Obviously the police force in Cape Town are all plain clothes policemen and women, because I don't recall seeing one.

[Dave A]

I see the David Rattray murder now seems to be a "robbery gone wrong." So why murder the guy if the intention was robbery?

The "crime is driven be poverty/need" theory gets blown out the window when it comes to murder. You don't need to kill people to put food on the table. For me there is a huge gap between breaking in and stealing clothes, food, valuables (not good) and callously shooting and re-shooting to make sure the victim is dead (really really bad). And yet for some it seems there is no real difference.

It is high time that the society sends a clear message that there is a huge difference between robbery and murder. We need to stop robbers from murdering - period.

Of course, while they're about it, it would be nice if the stopped robbers too...

ps. @President Thabo Mbeki - I think we have a problem.

[Dave A]

As I said earlier, I never read that story saying crime had halved in the last ten years. But this story seems to give the lie to that little piece:

Crime statistics show that nearly 2,5-million people were victims of violent crime in the past three years and a recent study also showed a probability that more than 90% of people will fall victim to crime in South Africa.

"The statistics confirmed that the government has already lost the struggle against crime and it does not have the political will to accept that crime is a greater threat to our society," Van der Schyf said.

Last month, in an interview with the South African Broadcasting Corporation, President Thabo Mbeki said most South Africans would agree with him that it was a perception that crime was out of control. "There is crime, but this does not mean it is out of control," he said.

On Friday, Democratic Alliance leader Tony Leon said 98% of South Africans felt the president's attitude towards crime is mistaken. Writing in his weekly letter, Leon was referring to an e.tv poll that followed Mbeki's comments; the poll asked: "Is crime out of control in South Africa?", to which 98% of respondents answered "yes".

"With regard to the devastating spiral of violent crime, my tip for Mr Mbeki is that he frankly admit the urgency of the crisis," said Leon.

Also last month, the biannual Government Performance Barometer report published by the Markinor research company, affirmed the view that South Africans were increasingly pessimistic about crime, with just 40% of respondents feeling that government is doing enough to rectify the situation.

An African Union report of good governance also warned South Africa about growing levels of violent crime, which are undermining confidence in the country.

Also from the same story:

The National Civil Safety and Security Action (Nacissa) has asked how government and the ruling party can promote a better life for all if crime is out of control.

"We are not against strategies that the government has put in place; we are here to assist," Nacissa chief executive Ockie van der Schyf said in Pretoria on Friday. He was addressing the launch of Nacissa, which aims to unite civil society against crime.

Last week the ruling African National Congress (ANC) urged South Africans to "not become spectators" in the fight against crime, calling for the full participation of the public.

ANC spokesperson Smuts Ngonyama said the ANC plans to launch a mass-mobilisation campaign to ensure community involvement in the building of safer and more stable communities. He said the campaign will focus on the "reinvigoration of community policing forums as effective and credible sites for coordination, monitoring and popular participation".
full story from M&G here

The ANC party seems to see a different picture from "All is well" President Thabo Mbeki. Perhaps it's the bodyguards that make the difference.

In other news, FNB has cancelled their planned anti-crime campaign:

First National Bank has cancelled its anti-crime initiative which was designed to encourage President Thabo Mbeki to make crime his priority, the early edition of the Sunday Times reported on Saturday evening.

According to the newspaper First Rand bank chief executive Paul Harris and his executive team pulled out of the R20-million campaign at 3.30pm on Friday. The print, radio and television adverts highlighting the campaigns were canned by management.

Also on Friday, after hearing of the campaign, officials from the Presidency and the government's security cluster met with the bank's managment.

Harris refused to comment on who he had met with from the Presidency but when asked if he had discussed the campaign with the government on Friday he said: "I don't want to talk about who we spoke to other than to say it was a broad range of stakeholders -- all people that we felt could in some way be impacted on this."

Government spokesperson Themba Maseko said the campaign was a form of incitement against Mbeki.

"Positioning themselves as an opposition party is not appropriate ... Trying to incite people to behave in a certain way towards the head of state cannot be condoned," he said.

As a component of the campaign, the bank had commissioned 2,8-million pamphlets with a patriotic message about crime. On each was an envelope addressed to the president with the postage already paid.
from M&G here

What a bonus - they get the publicity boost and don't need to spend the money.

[Dave A]

I see in the Sunday Times report, FNB has already incurred the cost.

The pamhlet text intended for distribution can be read here, although who knows for how long.

Quite punchy in parts.

Interesting twist - business against crime groups accusing FNB of being opportunistic.

[duncan drennan]

I think Stephan Francis and Rico have finally figured it out. Check out what they think of Thabo's comments.

[duncan drennan]

On a more serious note, the M&G online ran an article, "Thabo Mbeki's new age of denial?" on Friday last week. I think Aubrey Matshiqi hit the nail on the head with this comment,

“What the president is unaware of is steady convergence of opinion on crime, particularly since the Jeppestown shootings last year. Crime is becoming increasingly deracialised as more people become angry over its effects,” said Matshiqi. “It seems to me the president feels that the perceptions of increasing crime are incorrect as viewed against the information he has. But that is significant only for debate.

“The reality is that the levels of crime in this country are unacceptably high. That is what the president should be focusing on; giving leadership instead of winning narrow points.”

It seems that Thabo wants to argue the finer details of the issue, rather than look at the sweeping implications. It is great that crime has fallen (which looks great statistically), but if you look at the absolute levels, it is still not acceptable (see this Zapiro).

Mbeki is doing a fine impersonation of Queen Elizabeth (as played by Helen Mirren in the movie, The Queen). He is sticking to the technical detail of the fight against crime and refusing to recognise the fear gripping his nation. This is similar to the way in which the queen completely misjudged the mood of her people after the death of Princess Diana.

I do feel that Mbeki is not in touch with what people are saying and feeling. No about of chit-chat will change that. People actually need to start feeling safe before the rhetoric will have any impact.

[Dave A]

I'd have a lot more faith in statements that crime stats have improved if we did not have these selective releases. If the stats will show that our perception of crime levels is not justified - just release all the stats.

This embargo on crime stats just seems to indicate that there is something to hide.

[duncan drennan]

So here is my question for the day: why is crime so violent in South Africa?

I don't really buy into what Graeme is saying. I think the population that commits crime is a small percentage of the general population (I could be wrong). If everyone had that mindset we would have a much larger problem on our hands (country would have crumbled long ago). Also, it is pretty much a racial classification, and I'm pretty wary of those - too many broad generalisations.

[duncan drennan]

With regards to the pulled FNB campaign, see Alec Hoggs article on Moneyweb

[duncan drennan]

South Africans fear crime more than ever

There is an article on MoneyWeb by JP Landman, "South Africans fear crime more than ever".

I'd say he is quite well balanced in his approach to talking about the crime issue.

So starting with two facts,

The first point is that South Africans have never felt as vulnerable and fearful of crime as now. Two sources confirm it: victim surveys from the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) as well as research from the HSRC. Questions are asked like: are you more/less afraid at night; are you afraid to travel alone; do you travel at night and so on. The overwhelming response to these questions is that citizens are more fearful than previously. The conclusion is clear: citizens' perceptions of crime are that it has deteriorated - matters got worse.

The second empirical fact is that several categories of crime have declined. A critic of the government and certainly no friend of the Mbeki administration, The SA Institute for Race Relations (SAIRR), reported that eight of 12 crime categories have declined over the period 1994/5 to 2005/6. This is confirmed by victim surveys. In victim surveys official stats are ignored and a sample of the population is asked if they experienced crime, what types of crime, how often and so on. These victim surveys confirm the official stats the SAIRR used.

There are some other interesting points on who crime affects, and how many perpetrators are linked to their victims (friends/family) - read the article for the details of those.

I think I found this the most interesting,

If the age group 15 and 29 in a society is more than 30% of the total population, violence follows (Caldwell, Fin Times, January 5 2007). There are 67 countries in the world with such "youth bulges" now - and 60 of them are undergoing some kind of serious killing, civil war, insurgency and so on. According to the latest Actuarial Society of SA demographic projections (released late in December), precisely 30% of the SA's population are now in the age cohort 15 - 29.

[Dave A]

I find the comment on "social capital" the most relevant - and probably the source of our unease as a society. I suspect we can sense this lack in society.

In 81% of murder cases the murderer knew the victim. In other words only in 19% of murders was the victim unknown to the murder. In the case of rape the numbers are 76% v 24%; and serious assault 89% v 11%. These come from an analysis of 2005/6 crime stats. Is this the normal way citizens treat one another?

The same lack of societal values is indicated by an opinion poll in the Sunday Times that 1/3 of all South Africans experience road rage. Nice, tolerant way of interacting with one another, would you not agree?

There is something seriously wrong with our society's social capital.

I disagree the thought that government and police can't affect this social capital, though.

No degree of police efficiency can deal with this. No amount of shouting at politicians can cure this. The sooner we start focusing on social capital, the sooner we can deal with this problem.

Our elected political representatives and police need to be role models, and let's be honest - are they?

Some yes. And some, most definitely not!

I attended a session where the speaker was talking about the importance of how we are socialised. For example, grow up in a gang environment and the chances increase that you will live by gang values. Grow up in a law-abiding environment, and the chances increase that you will abide by and respect the law. Of course, we're talking a shift in the average - it's far from absolute and there are more than enough upstanding, perfectly law-abiding citizens who are products of the most horrific social environments. And less than scrupulous people who grew up in a more nurturing environment.

[Dave A]

Clearly, not all crime stats are going down.

The crime most feared in South Africa is housebreaking, according to a survey recently conducted for the National Prosecuting Authority.

"The reason is the fear that the burglary will take place while the residents are on the premises," said Andre du Toit, acting director for public prosecutions in the Free State. He was addressing a symposium on serious and violent crime in Bloemfontein on Wednesday.

"One can avoid dangerous areas and prevent robbery, but you cannot stay away from your house."

Du Toit said it was disturbing that only 1% of reported housebreakings went to court. It was well known that the best deterrent to crime was that the perpetrator would be caught.

"The possibility is almost non-existent concerning housebreaking."

Du Toit said robbery was one of the serious crimes that was reported the least.

The public's impression that crime was out of control could largely be attributed to the increase in robberies since 1994, to the violent nature of robberies and to the "new-phenomenon" robberies.

These included cash-in-transit robberies, which replaced bank robberies after banks improved their security. Others are vehicle hijacks, house robberies -– people storming into a house and robbing the residents -– and "shopping mall" robberies.

In regard to murder, Du Toit said inquests revealed a cause for concern. In 2005 792 inquests were received, and in 2006 there were 789.

"When these [inquests] are analysed, further disturbing statistics were found. During 2005 about 270 investigations and in 2006 about 300 inquests found that a person was responsible for the death of the victims, but prosecution cannot start because witnesses cannot be found.

"This means in these two years there were 577 murders where the murderers cannot be prosecuted."

Du Toit said there was great concern in the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) about the increase in crime.
from M&G here

[Dave A]

South Africa should not see itself as the "criminal skunk" of the world, because many other countries in transition had the same high crime prevalence.

Dap Louw, a psychology professor at the University of the Free State, said South Africans should also not develop a "learned helplessness syndrome" -- characterised by powerlessness and incapability in the fight against crime.

"A positive national self-image should be promoted to combat the cynicism, distrust and depression that dis-empower South Africans to actively participate in the fight of crime," Louw, also a renowned criminologist, said during a symposium in Bloemfontein on violent crimes on Wednesday.

"We can do something about it instead of just talking about it around braais."

Louw said the present crime situation in South Africa should be put in perspective because this was something the South African media "clearly did not specialise in".

"We lived in an abnormal society [apartheid]; now we live in a normal society in a country in transition."

Louw said other transitional countries who had experienced the same crime situation as South Africa were Russia, Estonia, Cambodia and Poland.

Louw said the media in other non-transitional countries like America, Wales, England and Australia had also reported on "concerns" of an increase of violent crime in 1996.

"These people are in the same boat as you and me," Louw said, himself also a crime victim, having being stabbed twice in the back.

Looking at the causes of crime, Louw said South Africans should not look further than themselves and must stop pointing fingers at others.

Louw quoted 19th century French criminologist Jean Lacassagne, who said: "Every society gets the number of criminals it deserves."

Referring to the environmental causes of crime, Louw said that in South Africa he would add to this quote the words "the kind of criminals it deserves" if one looked at the state of the country's children.

"Approximately 40% of our children live in poverty, about 100 000 children are projected to die from Aids in the next ten years, two million [will be] orphaned and 30% of the reported cases of suicidal behaviour involve children."

At least 1 000 children were murdered every year, 20 000 were raped each year [40% of all rape cases], while millions were emotionally and physically abused and neglected by parents and other adults.

"Today's children are not only tomorrow's adults, they are also tomorrow's criminals."

Louw was of the opinion that alcohol's role in crime and accidents was under-reported in the country, although 60% of all crime was already attributed to alcohol.

Poverty alleviation and social upliftment should form part of any crime-prevention strategy. Other factors include research, the targeting of less serious offences "creating a zero-tolerance effect", the involvement of communities and the empowering victims.

Although violent crime was regarded as South Africa's foremost threat, scientific data was scarce, Louw said.

Also speaking at the symposium was Human Rights Commissioner Leon Wessels, who said the crime situation had caused the number of initial supporters for the abolishing of the death penalty to shrink.

However, he said it was not likely that the death penalty would come back within the "life time" of the current government.

Wessels said there was enough room within the Constitution to tackle the crime situation.

Chairperson of the Civil Society Initiative, Roelf Meyer, agreed that crime with a "violent element" should be researched. Reasons for the "mindset" must be found.

Meyer said ways of improving the crime situation include involving the private sector in police training, proper and good management of policing at grassroots level and getting civil society involved.
from M&G here