[Article] Worst Case Scenario

[IanF]

Here is a link to a PDF I received. Link I feel this sets out the worst case.

A selected quote "By 2010 the key functions of Government are all under severe pressure.
Then the electricity crisis of 2008 triggered a reaction. Every household was affected and the mismanagement and
cover up of dwindling coal stock piles became common knowledge. This was followed by a flood of information about
the status of dams and rivers that impacted on the supply of fresh water. Next to this, the sewage problem that had
been building up for years suddenly showed its ugly head.
What paralysed the government of President Jacob Zuma was that it all happened at the same time."

How can we make a difference if we can't change the ruling party of SA

[Dave A]

Now that's the sort of stuff I want my junk mail filter to can for me.

Seriously, what business would pay for that "intelligence"?

And as for it being objective - pleeeease! Let's get real here.
The oke is as objective and constructive as bra Julius.

[IanF]

Dave
I felt it was full of half truths, but it was sent by an ex work colleague. So I shared it. It just does feel that sometimes we are sitting on a knife edge and may fall the wrong way.

[Dave A]

Oh, I'm not knocking your post, Ian. Your extract and thrust are worthy discussion points.

It's the objectiveness and credibility claimed in the preamble of the document you link to that I'm trashing.

[IanF]

Dave
We need robust debate on the issue of governance. It is good to see different viewpoints. The empirical evidence I see does help reinforce views like this.
That is why we must ask what can we do.
I have started buying filtered water which we use at home and the ladies of the house no longer get bladder infections is this a coincidence?
I just wish the voters would vote for a change in government

[Dave A]

In a way it might prove a good thing that these challenges are coming. Real ones that citizens will respond to. I don't see the citizens of this country just taking them lying down.

Water quality, waste water, rising acid water are mentioned. Then there's the strong possibility rolling blackouts will be making a comeback.

It's going to force the "ruling party" to get out of their ivory tower, drop the prissy posing and start doing what it takes to actually solve real problems. The World Cup shows just what we can achieve when we have clear goals and commitment.

For all the doom and gloom in the article, I'm seeing a growing middle class and active "civil society" in SA that when they're riled, the ANC does take notice. Take the protection of information bill - vocal pressure has yielded results.

Sometimes things need to get worse to get better, and I'm not buying that we're on the edge of some precipice. I've been hearing that song for way to long already. It's like the kid that kept shouting "wolf."

[tec0]

I wanted to type out a good long factual post. But seriously what is the use? Not to insult anyone for it is not my intention but I have pointed out on so many occasions now that things can go better IF there was any desire to do so.

Alas I have tried, both in my words and in my actions. I have done all that I could do with my limited resources as they are. But that being said it is people that don’t have a lot that are trying to keep everything from collapsing.

But, not far from us are people driving six million rand cars, live in 12 million rand homes, with an annual income of over 30 million a year. They don’t do a thing; they just keep on using cheap labour, no training or any development. If you think I am joking please come and see for yourself.

I see Ferraris, Lamborghinis, a few new Nissan GTR’s, private helicopters a lot of Porsches and the list just goes on. Now what I don’t see is training schools, development programs, a functional police station a mining group that actually care if people get hurt or not.

Eskom’s equality program is a joke and Telkom’s equality program is none existent. These are the facts. Just ask for the employment records “You will NEVER� see them. Ever...

That being said the suicide rate has doubled in our aria along with drug and alcohol abuse and job scarcity is as high as ever before.

The only upside is when there are no more “expendables� there will be no more cheap labour, no more financial growth. Our communication system and Power system will collapse because they refuse to train people in the public sector. But when all that has happened and our Rand value is worth no more than toilet paper.

I am going to enjoy seeing these parasites squeal.

[Dave A]

On the flip side, the end of this article on interest rate cuts, too little, too late, quotes Mike Schussler:

Schussler said this quarter's growth isn't enough to create a meaningful number of jobs in a country that has seen high unemployment -- it now hovers around 25% -- for the past decade.

"We should be bursting with commodity prices through the roof and tying in closer to China and India and other East Asian and Latin American countries that are bouncing back rapidly -- but we're not," Schussler said, referencing third-quarter job losses.

"Something is not right in this picture," Schussler said.

I still don't see a cliff though, just a slope leaning the wrong way.

[Retha]

Now that's the sort of stuff I want my junk mail filter to can for me.

Seriously, what business would pay for that "intelligence"?

And as for it being objective - pleeeease! Let's get real here.
The oke is as objective and constructive as bra Julius.

Hi Dave, I have also read this document and it did seem to pull a lot of stuff we already know, into a cohesive whole. My problem was that there were no advice on how to make use of the information, no suggestions and perhaps no hope.

I would really like you to elaborate a bit on what you find useless or whatever. I may well be a bit negative myself, as I have been working very hard recently with dealing with new legislation. I had major problems with the SARS IRP5 recons and could just not get the support I needed to get the thing done. It really took days of my time. I am battling with CIPRO to get changes done for cc's and Company details. I have to be registered at the Estate Agents Affairs Board, the Financial Services Board and the Debt Collector Council. During 2011 I need to do two exams, one for the FSB and one for the EAAB, just to be able to continue with the bussiness I have done for 12 years - otherwise I lose my registration. That will require doing courses. A lot of new boards and complaints facilities have been created and people not wanting to pay their rent or levies, make use of these facilities and waiste my time on fighting battles which have no basis and leads nowhere, but still take up my time to answer the accusations.

What I see is a grossly increased (inflated) civil service where many jobs are created and salaries paid. However, due to the red tape it creates, the newly created jobs not really increase the type of production which can create wealth. It feeds on the small percentage of real production, but it also takes a lot of man hours and resources away from those institutions that actually create wealth. I feel as if I am working for the government and there is very little left to grow the bussiness with.

I do recognise that this inflated civil service has in fact created a lot of other work for people who become experts and then sell that expertise to other companies. Some major shifts have occurred in the community, which really fassitnates me. As lawlessness inceased jobs were created for car guards, for instance. Security companies make a living from the fear of criminals, etc.

I must, however, ask myself, 'how long can any economy handle such inflated type of job creation, - which does not have anything to do with producing stuff? It feels to me that the base that carries this is getting smaller.

I really would like to hear your view on this matter. I don't want to get excited over nothing, but on the other hand I very much want to understand where we are heading.

What does concern me politically, is the fact that there is a very big jobless group which does not understand these things and they are easy to manipulate. They are hungry and will believe and support any one with the right propaganda. It is fuel for the fire of revolution - and Africa does not have a good record of stability.

So, if you have some angles that can be of help, I will really appreciate it. Sorry for the long story.

[Dave A]

I have also read this document and it did seem to pull a lot of stuff we already know, into a cohesive whole. My problem was that there were no advice on how to make use of the information, no suggestions and perhaps no hope.

I would really like you to elaborate a bit on what you find useless or whatever.

Hi Retha,

I think you've already nailed down why the report isn't worth paying for - there is zero meaningful insight. Where are the opportunities? Where are the suggested strategies towards mitigation?

Worse than that, there's no depth. Your post above has more depth than that report, and in far fewer words. That report just pulls together a few of the current headline issues. And what conclusions there are are very shaky. The problem is that all these issues came at the same time indeed! What superficial tripe.

For example, the electricity supply issue. This isn't new, and perhaps more importantly (and contrary to what this report suggests) it is already being addressed.

Too late perhaps, and we're likely to have interruptions to supply over the coming few years, but government is working on it.

When it comes to our bloated, overpaid civil service, this hasn't happened overnight. And the really big problem isn't the numbers compared to the formal private sector. It's the fact that despite all these people supposedly adding value to our economy, I can call every branch of the department of labour in the whole country on a Friday morning to try to find out what electrical contractors are supposed to be doing about registration and find that not a single person who (supposedly) can answer the question is available to take the call. Not one has returned the message (for the few where I could leave a message). And that includes the media liason for the minister of labour's office. Including repeat calls, 28 calls over 3 hours yielded nothing!

Our civil service is simply not effective. Not only are we paying taxes, we're wasting income-generating time trying to get the service we are, after all, paying for.

If this bloated civil service was paving the road to a booming economy, the current public-to-formal-private-sector employment ratio would be worth the investment. As it is, the private sector is paying for a "civil service" who's job, it seems, is to do everything in its power to put roadblocks in the way of the private sector.

[Retha]

Thanks Dave, absolutely agree with you!
What he mentioned which is really interesting to me and may well be a positive spin-off, is the fact that the comunity is taking over some highly needed functions.
The million dollar question is probably how long we and the country can keep all this up!
A guy in Zambia once said to me that the whites in Zambia are called 'Ifwe's' - 'If we only had this or that', the guys in Zimbabwe (it was still good times in Zimbabwe) were called 'whenwe's' - when we were Rhodesia, and the South Africans are called 'soweto's' - so where to now!
I do think it might be a good idea to look at opportunities in neighbouring countries who have gone through their revolutions and see white people as an asset - perhaps to have a foot in the door if things suddenly take a turn for the worse. (Keeping in mind that a functioning South Africa is also the basis of their economies!)
I would hate to have seen the writing on the wall, but left it too late to take action.
Thanks for your input

[Butch Hannan]

The answer to all this is to vote the Government out of office. The ANC relies on the uneducated masses to keep it in power. These very people who bear the brunt of the bungling by the authorities are in a large part poorly educated and misinformed. They are hungry and desperate and grasp any promises made to them at election time. When Zuma stands up at an ANC meeting in Mpumalanga and tells the audience that their ancestors will know if they do not vote for the ANC troubles me greatly. He is clever and cunning and knows what strings to pull in the black psyche.

The question I have asked before is whether the ANC would accept defeat in an election graciously. I doubt it!!

Butch Hannan

[Retha]

In Africa anything goes. The world is a very unsafe place, but in Africa things can change very suddenly. There is no respect for life, and power and money is the god that is served, making everything subservient thereto. The masses are used as pawns and he who gets the hearts of the masses (makes the most creative promises) wins.
I believe you get strong leaders and you get good leaders, that is not the same. A strong leader may be chosen above a good leader and that goes for all peoples, not only the uneducated, or specific races, or whatever.
Makes you feel quite helpless - especially as you know you can also be duped!
I would just like to have as many options open as possible, so as to try and be ready for whatever may come - and I want to make sense of what is not being said, but surfaces every now and then.
It is difficult to know, however. In Poland a family tried to escape the war. Only one survived, and when that person got back to their family estate, the war never touched it! - they would have been safe there!
There must be a balance about not worrying about the future, but still planning for contingencies - wish I could find it!: