Solution To Crime In South Africa

[Dave A]

The weakness is not in the numbers, it is in the extrapolation and interpretation.

But I'm more interested in the fatalist implications, chief being if you can't affect the outcome; if fate rules, why try to do anything?

[Chatmaster]

I thought it to be a good idea to through a bit of fuel on the fire.

Interestingly it is nearly impossible to obtain crime statistics pre 1994. I firmly believe it is to ensure that there is no way for anyone to compare the apartheid government with the ANC government. But my opinion is worth very little in that regard.

However I did find some information from the CIA and Interpol that in summary stated that from 1950 to 1993 there was a total of 309,000 murders in South Africa and Namibia combined over the 44 year period. (Remember that SA was a protectorate of Namibia) Anyway, that equates to an average of 7,000 murders per year. Since 1994 We had an average murder rate (excluding Namibia) of 47,000 murders per year!

Now to put this in perspective we need to add the population totals of 1950 and compare those to 2010. The official statistics shows that SA population in 1950 was 13,595,000 and for 2010 is 49,109,100. Keep in mind that the 1950 count excluded people living in Transkei, Bophuthatswana, Venda and Ciskei. This indicates to me that there is something seriously wrong here!

A further issue I have is that according to report issued by Interpol in 2001 they stated that the official murder rate issued by the SAPS was only about half of the actual figure! This means that the actual murder rate would not have been 24,000 for that year but according to Interpol 47,800! This same discrepancy was also noted by Medical Research Council as their figures was also exceptionally higher than that of the SAPS.

One last bit of paraffin on the fire: 94% of all persons released after spending their sentence in jail immediately return to crime!!!

[adrianh]

I think that crime stats are fairly useless. Many crimes are simply not reported to the police because people know that the police will do nothing anyway. A lot of women feel ashamed about reporting rape. Why would anybody living in a township bother to report a crime comitted against them, all that would happen is that they will be victimised. Pre '94 crime statistics are just as useless for the exact same reasons.

If 94% of people released from jail return to crime it proves that jail sentences have no value. If the person is dirt poor and lives in a shack to start with, sitting in jail ain't going to make any difference to his life anyway. I stand by what I say - swift harsh public punishment. You have to punish a first world man with first world methods.

[tec0]

Honestly this subject is debatable and the dynamics of the subject are almost infinite. How do you stop crime? The truth is if you eliminate the financial aspect of crime, you are left with sadistic crimes or hate crimes and its many aspects.

It is clear prisons don’t work. So will public mutilations work? Probably yes, it’s kind of hard to steel with no hands. Castrations along with removing a leg will definitely stop a rapist. Executing murderers will remove them permanently.

Realistically however... We have our backs against the wall and no way to protect ourselves, so other then wishful thinking to nurture hope, there is not much we can do... We simply have to deal with the fact that we are powerless.

This time around the criminals won and our own laws are protecting the criminals so what is the use of law then?

[Butch Hannan]

I bet you this one has been solved already. Our firms delivery driver told me on Monday that his sister who is a police woman was robbed in her house on Saturday of valuables and her service firearm. On Tuesday he told me that one of the culprits had been shot dead on the Monday and some of the valuables and the firearm recovered.

Butch Hannan

[Butch Hannan]

One exception to the 94% quoted by you is offenders who do religious courses in the prisons where the re-offending rate is as low as 5%. Unfortunately only a very small percentage of offenders actually do these courses. The prison where I was involved in out of a total of 500 only 15 attended the course of 14 weeks(Alpha course). We ran three courses a year. Out of the forty five who attended the confirmed statistics show that 40 have not gone back to jail. I personally have the assurance that there are 40 less criminals on our streets

The official fall back rate is presently about 77%

Butch Hannan

[Dave A]

So make Alpha courses compulsory as part of the sentence?

I think that will just mutilate the stats on the Alpha Course success rate.

[Dave S]

Quote: "I stand by what I say - swift harsh public punishment. You have to punish a first world man with first world methods."

Don't you mean, "Punish a Third world criminal with third world methods".

The first world method would be to first find a "politically correct" name for the crime that has been committed, this makes the crime less serious. Then try the offender as a respectful member of society. Give him a sentence that is reduced because he is a "family man". Ensure that his jail cell is equiped with a TV and Cell phone. And then let him out early because Nelson is having a birthday...

[adrianh]

Ah, you see, the IO post that controls my finders and the IBM XT were out of sync again.

You must also remember that during the trail, if it ever comes to it, the criminal trades his jail sentence to give evidence against his cousin who is even a bigger criminal and doesn't spend any time in prison watching the world cup on his plasma TV in his suite.

[Dave A]

After a four-and-a-half year investigation, and two-and-a-half years since charges were first laid, former police National Commissioner Jackie Selebi has been found guilty of corruption.
full story from M&G here

I wonder if he'll be trading in mates for a lighter sentence?