The Zuma cabinet.

[Dave A]

Lists are being drawn up and speculation has started on who will be in and who will be out in the Zuma cabinet.

Some logical part of my brain tells me there is still a chance there might not be a Zuma cabinet. But logic probably won't have too much to do with it and even if this came to pass, it seems unlikely that the main names being touted will change substantially.

The one that has really got me wondering is Trevor Manuel. Given some of the other bods likely to be in there, I really can't see him hanging around for the fights over budget and fiscal policy that will be inevitable if he stays. It certainly would be a smart time to make a diplomatic exit.

On the upside, I'm sure there are more than a few members here who will be pleased to hear that poison Ivy seems likely to go.

Any other observations?

[Graeme]

There will be big problems for this country if Trevor Manuel goes - the finance people overseas will be greatly troubled about RSA's economy. Capital inflows could dry up and without these SA would be in big trouble.

[garthu]

I would hope that there will never be a Zuma cabinet! But i think it could be wishfull thinking which is crazy (i mean really how can he even be considered). Theres a few of my staff that reckon he's the best thing sliced bread.... Once Trevor goes, my Auzzie plan becomes accelerated regrettably as it's not what i want but been through it once in Zim and not sticking around for another rough lesson in life.

[Graeme]

You will no doubt have been watching the American presidential election and inauguration on TV. One cannot help noting Obama's obvious intelligence, nice family and good manners, and fine ambitions for his country. Compare that with the uneducated president-elect which we have here with his 4 wives and criminal associates (one of whom is already in gaol). And all he can do at ANC gatherings is to prance about and sing "bring me my machine-gun". It would seem that God has deserted this country. But I suppose we are not alone, He seems to have deserted Israel & Zimbabwe as well.

[Dave A]

Which ordinarily would raise the question - What is Jacob Zuma's ambition for this country?

But I'm not convinced JZ is in control. He seems to be more a rallying point.

[duncan drennan]

But I'm not convinced JZ is in control. He seems to be more a rallying point.

So who is?

[Dave A]

Look for the people who are managing JZ.

[Yvonne]

Dave - Winnie? maybe not behind him, but certainly "around"!

Yvonne

[Dave A]

Sorry, didn't mean to be coy.

There was a news report last week along the lines that JZ's diary is being run by the ANC now (as opposed to being run by JZ himself). Essentially, the party has taken control of who JZ does and does not see or talk to. I forget the name bandied about, but I recall a strong COSATU connection there.

So to cut a long story short, I'd say the very top few of the COSATU/SACP faction have a very strong influence on the top level decisions of the ANC.

[wynn]

The ANC NEC runs the ANC and the ANC runs the Gubbement, therefore the NEC runs the Country.
In the NEC their is a disproportionate number of SACP members therefore indirectly the SACP is now running the Country.

Bantu Holomisa described it elegently when he said that the ANC was like a huge passenger ship with no power being led by a little tugboat called the SACP.

[Dave A]

It seems clear the ANC still want Trevor Manuel to head up Finance.

The African National Congress (ANC) has nominated Finance Minister Trevor Manuel -- an investor favourite -- high on a party list for Parliament, showing it probably wants him to remain influential in Cabinet, the Star reported on Thursday.

South Africa, the continent's biggest economy, holds a general election due around April and investors are hoping the country sticks to business-friendly policies.

The Star, which said it had obtained a copy of the list, said Manuel is in fourth place out of 777 names. It also expressed confidence in central bank governor Tito Mboweni, who came in 70th on the list, which has not been finalised.

Respected by investors as having a steady hand, Manuel is seen as crucial to ensuring stability and confidence after the election. But it's unclear whether he will stay as finance minister after 13 years or move to a different portfolio.

ANC leader Jacob Zuma is expected to become state president after the election despite a revived corruption case that has dogged him. Zuma topped the ANC list.
full story from M&G here

But do they want him for his policies or his reputation?

[Yvonne]

Is the list of proposed M.P.'s as shown on TV today genuine, or is this a hoax?

Yvonne

[Marq]

No its a hoax list...........the real list is worse.

They have learnt from the Durban Politburo bunch......Leak to the sheeple a huge hit list of controversy, as a diversion and then the ones you really want will slip through and not even be noticed.
Look at the list for the ones who are not yet infamous or are lurkers. Therein will lie the future problems.

Once again they are showing that its not...What you know....and its not... Who you know....its What you know on Who you know.

[Dave A]

There's still some sort of filtering process that has to be completed anyway. For example there is debate as to whether Winnie, who is number 5 on the list after the nominations process, is actually eligible for a seat.

Then there is the slight possibility that we won't have the proportional representation system by time of the elections, in which case the lists can be tossed out the window.

[duncan drennan]

Then there is the slight possibility that we won't have the proportional representation system by time of the elections, in which case the lists can be tossed out the window.

Why would this change before the elections? I thought part of COPE's campaign was to have the PR system changed. Although, if the system changed before the elections then COPE may have less leverage - or is the ANC just saying the right words and dancing to the popular beat as long as it keeps them in power?