What is Mugabe's problem?

[Dave A]

I know we are a South African site and I've avoided getting sucked into Zimbabwe issues, but this is ridiculous.

Who has ever heard of holding an election but there is no requirement to declare the result? What the heck is the purpose of holding elections in the first place?

So what if he lost the election. He's 84 for goodness sake. He should be looking to retire and enjoy his loot.

What is Robert Mugabe's problem?

[Faan]

It could be that he will stand trial for crime against humanity and that has to be avoided.

[Dave A]

South African President Thabo Mbeki said on Saturday there was "no crisis" in Zimbabwe after holding his first face-to-face talks with Robert Mugabe since the country's disputed March 29 elections.

Mbeki, who stopped in Harare on his way to join southern African leaders in Zambia for an emergency meeting on Zimbabwe, said people should wait for the election commission to announce the long-awaited presidential result.

"There has been a natural process taking place and we are all awaiting the ZEC (Zimbabwe Electoral Commission) to announce the results and there is also the matter of the court case," he said, referring to an opposition legal bid to force the result.

"The body authorised to release the results is the ZEC, let's wait for them to announce the results," Mbeki said.

As president of the regional power South Africa, Mbeki has come under fire for his muted response to the situation in Zimbabwe where two weeks after the presidential election no result has yet been announced.
full story from IOL here

Just to point out, Mr. President, that the ZEC counting process ended a week ago.

[Dave A]

The SADC leaders seem happy with the way Thabo is going about things.

Regional leaders called on South African President Thabo Mbeki to continue his mission as chief mediator between Zimbabwe's ruling party and the opposition following recent disputed elections.

"The summit congratulated and thanked the SADC facilitator, President Mbeki and his facilitation team for the role they had played in helping to contribute to the successful holding of election," a joint statement said.

"Summit requested president Mbeki to continue in his role as facilitator on Zimbabwe on the outstanding issue," said the statement issued at the conclusion of a summit of the 14-nation Southern African Development Community.
from IOL here

The outstanding issue being...?

[Vincent]

I think our president lives in some other dimension, never mind another planet, where the roads are paved with gold, the trees lined with silver and the rivers flowing with the abundance of life - where there is no crisis.

...or maybe he is trying to learn from Mad Bob on how to run a country effectively, for the benefit of a few.

[Chatmaster]

Thabo Mbeki is what I like to call a perception manager. He manage to convince people that he has leadership qualities, however he lacks the true nature of a leader, being a leader! Mmmmmmm that was a weird statement.... I guess I am saying that he has proven himself once more for being unable to handle criminals and people unable to do their job. He fired the Deputy Minister of health for doing her job, but are unable to act when he faces true challenges (ESKOM, Crime, AIDS etc.). He simply is a weak leader with the ability to manage perception, in my opinion

[Graeme]

Mugabe

A recent article by Peter Osborne, writing in The Spectator is about the best summing up of the situation in Zimbabwe that I have come across so far:

“…………… Basically, President Mugabe has only three options, and time is running out very fast indeed.
The first of these is to mount a coup d’etat, (this was written before the decision to re-count votes in certain areas) the solution which is preferred by Mugabe’s inner circle. Significantly, it seems to be favoured by General Constantine Chiwenga, commander in chief of the armed forces, and by Air Force Marshall Perence Shiri, Mugabe’s blood relation and close ally.
It must be borne in mind that senior figures such as these do not merely stand to lose power if Mugabe loses, they also face the prospect of being brought to justice for the crimes of the Mugabe regime. It was Perence Shiri, for instance, who led the North Korean-trained Fifth Brigades in the Matabeleland genocide of the early 1980’s.
The problem with the idea of a coup d’etat (or vote revision) is not really the international condemnation that would inevitably result. The Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) might not like it, but under the prostrate guidance of Thabo Mbeki it would never lift a finger.
The true problem is different: there are real reasons to doubt whether commanders like Shiri (whose Chinese Mig fighters were buzzing low over Bulawayo in an act of naked intimidation when I was there two weeks ago) have the support of their troops. There is overwhelming anecdotal evidence that ordinary soldiers and policemen, even some members of the feared Central Intelligence Organisation, have turned against Mugabe. The director of intelligence, Happyton Bonyongwe, is said to be quietly supporting Tsvangirai.

Mugabe’s second option is to declare the recent elections null and order a re-run. There is striking evidence that that the President is preparing the way for this. He is already taking revenge, for example, on the hapless Zimbabwe Electoral Commission, several of whose members have been arrested over the last few days. In a marvellous irony, they are being accused of rigging the result against Zanu PF.
If the President calls for a second election, it will be marked by all the intimidation and horror which was to a certain extent lacking on 29 March. Mugabe’s Green Bombers, his licensed torturers and murderers who bear close resemblance to Hitler’s Brownshirts, are already off the leash.

Finally, Mugabe could stand down. Here one key ingredient would be a guarantee that he - and the scores of murderers and torturers who are linked to him - can live the rest of their lives in the peace and tranquillity they have denied so many others. Granting Mugabe immunity from prosecution is hard to engineer and would be unpalatable for some. Others may judge it well worthwhile.

Meanwhile everyone waits for the old man’s next move. I am told by a friend who runs one of Zimbabwe’s very few remaining factories that the mood amongst the workforce has changed very sharply over the last 48 hours. Hope has turned to bemusement and then - on Tuesday morning - to a silent pervasive sense of terror, as if something horrible might be just about to happen.�

[Dave A]

Now who ever heard of a recount being called without the result of the first count being announced?

If those first results reflected that a run-off was due, I can't see any reason why the results should not be published. There can be only one reason - Morgan Tsvangirai did, indeed, get more than 50% of the Presidential vote and the run-off would no longer be an option.

[Chatmaster]

I think this image from Zapiro explains it all.

[Dave A]

I see even Zapiro is struggling to get any satirical humour into the subject.

Jacob Zuma sure seems to be talking tough on the subject.

African National Congress (ANC) president Jacob Zuma said on Tuesday Africa must send a mission to Zimbabwe to end a delay in issuing election results, which he called unacceptable.

In his toughest comments yet on the three-week delay in announcing results of a presidential vote, Zuma said: "It's not acceptable. It's not helping the Zimbabwean people who have gone out to ... elect the kind of party and presidential candidate they want, exercising their constitutional right."
from M&G article here

You know what gets me - I can't think of a single redeeming feature of Mugabe's Presidency of late. If he was doing anything good for the country I might understand why he is fighting the result. But right now the best thing he can do for Zimbabwe is bow out, and he can't find it within himself to give his country even that one mercy.

[murdock]

why would he give up his life style...he lives better than a king...he has got toooo much to loose.

voting was a good opitunity for him to expose and pin point all mdc supporters and key members...and now he can crack down on them...good move...if you want to expose your opposition...now he just needs all his weapons being sent from china...and he can start a civil war.

[Dave A]

The president and general secretary of the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions are being subjected to "intensive interrogation", police in Harare confirmed on Friday.

The two were arrested on Thursday on charges of inciting violence and making inflammatory statements about the government during a May Day rally.

Lovemore Matombo and Wellington Chibebe are said to have made "false statements" about farm workers and others in the rural areas being killed and harassed by forces supporting the ruling Zanu-PF.
full story from IOL here

I suppose the sequel is someone being arrested for making false statements about the harassment of ZCTU leaders.

[Dave A]

Zimbabwean opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai said on Saturday he will contest the run-off election against President Robert Mugabe.

"A run-off election could finally knock out the dictator [Mugabe] for good," he told reporters in Pretoria. "The run-off election could be the final round in a very long fight to liberate ourselves from our former liberator."

The run-off should take place within two weeks and not later than May 23, Tsvangirai said, adding that he would return Zimbabwe soon.

Tsvangirai also said there were conditions for the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) to take part in the election, including a halt to the current violence, the deployment of Southern African Development Community (SADC) peacekeepers, media access and that international observers be allowed into the country.

"The optimum conditions are conditions SADC should deliver, we put our faith in that, and we are going to run," he said.
full story from IOL here

[Dave A]

It's not looking pretty for free and fair elections in Zimbabwe. At what point do you call Bob's "democracy" a sham?

Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe says liberation war veterans are ready to take up arms to prevent the opposition winning a June 27 presidential run-off.

"It will never happen that this land which we fought for should be taken by the MDC so that they can give it back to our former oppressors, the whites," the paper quoted him as saying.

MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai, human rights groups and Western powers accuse Mugabe of unleashing a brutal campaign to win the run-off.

Tsvangirai says 66 of his followers have been murdered but former guerrilla leader Mugabe, who has ruled since independence from Britain in 1980, blames the MDC for violence that has caused widespread international concern.

Earlier, the MDC said Zimbabwean police impounded two campaign buses used by Tsvangirai in the latest action against the opposition leader in the election campaign.

Tsvangirai, who has been detained four times in the past week and has had his own vehicle confiscated, would continue the campaign, MDC spokesperson George Sibotshiwe said.

The third most senior MDC leader, Tendai Biti, was arrested on his return from abroad on Thursday and faces a treason charge which could carry the death sentence.

His lawyers said on Friday they have still not been given access to him.
full story from IOL here

[Marq]

I think its going to be a long haul either way.

The interesting part is that the UN and US seem to be more active at the moment and we could see them put in a push to either oust Magube and the Veterans themselves or push SA to do it for them.

Civil war - well the same war escalating me thinks?????

Either way the region is in the dwang and we cannot afford this on top of the current economic woes.