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Should we not be investing in oil right now... you know, buy low sell high?
(Please don’t use big words because it confuses my small and primitive brain)
(Please don’t use big words because it confuses my small and primitive brain)
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It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change. – Charles Darwin -
Thanks Tec0, I mean BrettIt is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change. – Charles DarwinComment
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!! Going to my destruction !!Comment
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Well I bought some Sasol shares about 6 months ago with the intention of holding long term. They picked up around 5% and then the whole OPEC debacle struck. So I'm currently harbouring a loss of around 40%. This has happened before though, and I intend to buy more if the share price drops below a certain point. (R350) This will reduce my average cost and I'm certain both the oil price and Sasol's share price will show a full recovery (plus some) as has been shown in the past. It may take 3-5 years, but I expect it to happen.Mark My Words - Arbitrary thoughts on ordinary things"The way to gain a good reputation, is to endeavor to be what you desire to appear." - Socrates
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Could Lockhead's recent article on Compact Fusion have played a role in the oil priceVictor - Knowledge is a blessing or a curse, your current circumstances make you decide!
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Nah ... methinks the increase in supply sources due to the extreme increase in the price over the 00's is the main reason.
In particular stuff like fracking became much more profitable, and now once the main investments have already been made it just might still be profitable even at these new lower prices. Previously stuff like the oil sands in Canada (which is steamed out of the ground) were simply too expensive to extract, then once that $100 was reached it became profitable enough to attract investment. Now that the main investment has been spent the operating costs allow for it to still continue at this new $50 price.
The main question is just how long this can continue. Are these "horizontal drilling" techniques profitable in the long run or not? If they are, then we're in for at least 100 years of oil extraction - and that's just Canada's oil. I.e. an over supply which would then balance at the economic cost of extraction instead of the price-fixed OPEC historical situation.
This isn't very good for Sasol's oil from coal idea though, since that technology's not actually become much cheaper than it used to be (if at all) - so a drop in the oil price means less profit (or even more loss) for that particular section of Sasol. For my money, I think that's why that large drop in Sasol's price happened last year. Of course that's also a bit narrow minded, as Sasol isn't "just" doing that.Gold is the money of kings; silver is the money of gentlemen; barter is the money of peasants; but debt is the money of slaves. - Norm Franz
And central banks are the slave clearing houses
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And if you bought R50's worth yesterday you would have lost R4 overnight!"Nobody who has succeeded has not failed along the way"
Arianna Huffington
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