Load shedding on its way ?

[GCE]

I see besides Eskom telling us all is OK, it would appear from graphs that not all is OK, and unless something happens soon we could be back to load shedding on Friday
It would appear that the 2nd unit at Koeberg has also been taken out and excessive amounts of diesel are being used to keep lights on - Not sure if anybody has heard differently

This is todays report 17 Sep 2024


vs this one from 25 July 2024

[Dave A]

Quite a bit more diesel being consumed there.

KZN has been covered in cloud for days, so solar in this part of the world is going to be significantly down too.

Eskom must be desperate not to break their streak though...

[GCE]

Looks like Eskom have finally released a statement admitting Koeberg unit was taken out of service - maybe there is hope as it sounds like it could be on the way back into service


Koeberg Unit 1 was conservatively and safely shutdown on Wednesday 11 September 2024 after one of the isolation/block valves failed its three monthly routine test. The unit was shutdown in order to restore redundancy of the steam pressure relief system in line with the operating technical specifications. At no point was the safety of the plant, staff, public or environment at risk. The intervention has been completed and the unit is in the process of being safely returned to service. all stakeholders who were required to notify were informed as per the stringent protocols.

Our successful implementation of the Generation Operational Recovery plan continues to ensure that we have sufficient generation capacity. Additionally, we have sufficient emergency reserves to handle any sudden changes in demand during peak periods.

The issue has had no impact in the suspension of loadshedding and the summer outlook remains in force.

[GCE]

Thought I would post a graph per month so that I can look back at the history - What is interesting is the way the morning peaks are starting to reduce - This can only be due to residential and commercial roof top solar installations that are not contracted directly to Eskom

[GCE]

After last weekends stage 6 which was not to much of a surprise with the amount of diesel that was being consumed it looks like we could go same way this weekend
Also appears that 1 unit from Koeberg is off line
The brownish , crappy nappie, color is loadshedding

This one from the 6th Feb before we had weekend stage 4 loadshedding


This one from 26thFeb which shows why we went into stage 6 so quickly - If you look at it diesel has been used through the week. Think there is a good chance of some loadshedding to replenish over the weekend

[Tradie]

Grip failures seem to be the new norm, at least with load shedding we had a structured time frame. Most of us have load shedding solutions in place, what is getting frustrating is trying to keep the lights on for 2-3 day grid failures.

We have started installing 32 amp industrial plug tops at the our customers meters, with a small DB next to the meter box which has a changeover switch, a 32 amp mcb and a voltage/amp display. If the customer has an inverter, then the plug top is connected to the aux of the inverter, which is better because the earth spike is already installed.

[GCE]

Very surprised that we did not have some stages of load shedding on the weekend since Eskom ran diesel over the weekend and have now taken the 2nd Koeberg plant out - means we presently have no nuclear plant on line and still running diesel - reckon it is just a matter of time

[GCE]

Normally if Eskom ran diesel for a couple of days, load shedding would appear and or increase in intensity
They have been running diesel since stage 6 on 23rd Feb and are still running diesel yet have not announced load shedding - It cannot be to far away
Data from this morning

[GCE]

While typing out the above - Stage 3 has been implemented from 14h00 UNTIL Monday 5h00

[Dave A]

Yep! You called it!

[GCE]

After a weekend of load shedding and supposed recovery of units including Koeberg 2 , not much has changed from last week.
Koeberg 2 has ramped up but diesel is still being used all day to keep lights on

Looks like we could be in for another weekend of load shedding to " replenish stocks"

Data taken this morning

[GCE]

Eskom been running diesel non stopped along with pump storage inc sat and sun evening
Coal not going over 20MW and solar appears to be down which is obviously due to the weather around the country

Would not surprise me if we go onto night time loadshedding to replenish stock

[GCE]

Been seeing articles over Eskom performance and the burning of diesel

Went and had a look at there site and see that there has been more diesel used in Jan , Feb March 2025 than used in 2024 and 2023
The output of Eskom is also significantly down so it is not an increase in usage that is the cause
Demand is also lower than previous years which is directly related to GDP , but maybe due to increased private PV installations

Looking like it could be a bad winter unless they want to keep the narrative going that Andre de Ruiter was not competent to run Eskom and that the new guys are sorting the problem out - Going to be lots of diesel which will eventually translate to hefty increases

https://metabase.dwyer.co.za/public/dashboard/d3b40619-d8f0-4be3-a1f2-99fe5b84e961

[GCE]

The sudden load shedding last night shouldn't have been a surprise, but it was a surprise as they have been running excessive amounts of diesel over the past couple of months without implementing loadshedding.

Going to be interesting to see the graphs over the weekend when they reflect yesterday evening as to what happened
Here is this weeks up to the 23rd so long which shows diesel usage almost all day



So a day later and the updated graphs have been put through - they were running full diesel and when evening peaks came along there was just no extra capacity
Hopefully this is due to the final big maintenance push over the public holiday and we see units come back on line otherwise winter is going to be a big loadshedding issue

[Tradie]

There have been so many grid failures, which last days, its start making you wonder, considering the grid failures seem to move from suburb to suburb.

The sudden load shedding last night shouldn't have been a surprise, but it was a surprise as they have been running excessive amounts of diesel over the past couple of months without implementing loadshedding.

Going to be interesting to see the graphs over the weekend when they reflect yesterday evening as to what happened
Here is this weeks up to the 23rd so long which shows diesel usage almost all day

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