Load shedding set to resume today?

[Dave A]

I heard a rumour that load shedding is going to start again today. Anyone else got any news on this?

[daveob]

Yes. It was mentioned on TV this morning, so it MUST BE TRUE.

[Chatmaster]

Simon Gear commented yesterday on 702 that they are trying to continue the agreement with the biggest users to cut their usage with 10%. It seems like they wish to keep this up for as long as possible hoping that the residential and other consumers will come to the party with 10% savings as well.

[Dave A]

Alec Irwin reported that the big industry players feel they are being discriminated against, and were calling for a fairer dispensation.

At this point I think they're hammering the big companies because in the short term it affects less voters - until the retrenchments start kicking in. I see Goldfields is using the power crunch as motivation to close three shafts.

[Chatmaster]

I think you are right about the "voters" being effected.

I also think they believe that they are closer to solving the crisis than originally anticipated, so they are hoping that the big players will play the game with them, preventing further loss in confidence in the government.

[duncan drennan]

At this point I think they're hammering the big companies because in the short term it affects less voters - until the retrenchments start kicking in. I see Goldfields is using the power crunch as motivation to close three shafts.

I was wondering about this this morning - do you think that it is a possibility that they don't have any system in place to regulate general usage? I'm quite pro a rationing, or sliding scale system as it incentivises lower consumption, I just don't understand why they haven't done it yet (any laws that need changing first?)

[Dave A]

Concept is one thing - implimentation is another

Overall consumption rationing could be achieved quite easily on a penalty system, I'd think. However the problem is when we use the power, and for that we need different metering equipment installed.

[duncan drennan]

Overall consumption rationing could be achieved quite easily on a penalty system, I'd think. However the problem is when we use the power, and for that we need different metering equipment installed.

To me it would be possible to deal with that indirectly through a penalty system (sliding scale). I think (maybe, not 100% sure) that it would result in generally less electricity being consumed, which would indirectly result in a lower base load.

[Dave A]

Agreed - but it would be a reversal of Eskom's current pricing structure (where the more you use, the lower the rate) and perhaps more fuel for the inflation fire.

[duncan drennan]

The worst thing about this is that no matter how you fiddle the numbers someone has to pay, and it will probably be the low level workers. NUMSA has already made all sorts of threats, but what happens when there is no money to put on the table? We'll have to wait and see.

It is really unfortunate that domestic users have not come to the party. All that happens is that everyone suffers. All it required was (is) a small amount of proactive force.

[duncan drennan]

Cees Bruggemans makes this comment,

Why not use the oldest, most efficient optimizing model invented by mankind, which allocates marginal resources according to marginal cost and does so efficiently economy-wide?

Eskom needs a doubling in cash flow to undertake all the new expansion, maintenance and emergency measures, and a durable 10% cut in electricity demand.

So double the electricity tariff on 1 April, with a five-year phase-in for strategic electricity users (mines, hospitals, and not forgetting the Union buildings where the midnight oil must be burning furiously).

Most electricity users would intelligently decide to cut their electricity usage. It would be in their economic self-interest to do so. There should be minimal economic dislocation as all of us would adapt to the new tariffs in the best ways that suit us individually.

And the political cost? It could well be the lowest cost option of all, being predictable, transparent and adaptable. But it would all be very upfront and visible.

It would be a political gamble. But any more costly than the serial mayhem now being dished out and fooling no one? Not likely.

Personally I've become more and more convinced that his train of thought is correct. The only way to curb electricity consumption across the board is to significantly increase the price. Yes, people will feel that pinch, but at the same time it highly incentivises change in usage.

[Dave A]

Has this worked with fuel costs?

I appreciate reduced consumption has not been a strategic objective - it's been a supply and demand situation in a fairly open market.

But are we seeing more lift clubs or are there just as many "one person on board" vehicles out on our roads?

[duncan drennan]

But are we seeing more lift clubs or are there just as many "one person on board" vehicles out on our roads?

Valid point you have there Mr Alcock. I wonder how the culture around cars differs from that around electricity (if at all).

Do you think that companies have developed strategies to deal with rising fuel costs? e.g. better route planning for deliveries

[Snoopy_inc]

Hrm so far nothing yet my side... haven had load shedding for a month now.

I have a section also for this guys...
wellinformed.co.za
It's constantly being updated. Those of you interested.

[irneb]

So this is Africa time ... they (Eskom) specify that "regular" load-shedding (excuse the pun) will happen from Monday this week (that's now Mar 3). Our area (Sandton) was scheduled for 06h00 to 10h00 each day. Then nothing happens, just as everyone starts believing it's not necessary to modify your work times ... today we're given a "nice" surprise at 09h00 for a 2 hour break!

So, it seems to be back to the "good-old-days" of January! No-one knows when or where the next t_rd is going to hit the fan, not even Eish-Kom.