What the goverment plans to do

[duncan drennan]

On Friday the government release their energy crisis plan. There are quite a few interesting things in there, and I've tried to highlight the immediate plans (and issues) in my latest blog post.

In the medium and long term Eskom is continuing to expand their capacity, but in the short term drastic measures need to be taken to keep the economy supplied with electricity. Right now Eskom needs to release about 3000MW of capacity to provide enough "breathing room." That is a large chunk of power....although you might be surprised at how easily it can be obtained.

There is a single viable option to solve this crisis in the short term, and that is power conservation. The government and Eskom have identified this and have the following short term goals...

Read the full post on The Art of Engineering

Apparently by tomorrow we will have the proposed amendments to the Electricity Regulation Act detailing the quota system, penalties and incentives.

Overall I think the plan is quite a reasonable one. Now it just requires action by each individual, as well as Eskom and the government. I believe a strong marketing campaign to change social norms is where we have to start.

[Dave A]

Duncan, have you had a chance to look at the DA electricity crisis plan? No mention of rationing and more talk about alternative energy sources.

[duncan drennan]

I've just had a quick look. It seems more focussed on addressing medium to long term issues (which need to be addressed), but doesn't really help us get out of the immediate dangers. I'll look at it in more detail a bit later.

The reality is that no government programme (DA, ANC, or other) is going to get us out of the current predicament. Immediate and drastic action by individuals and companies will. We need to out attitude towards the problem, and try to rectify the immediate issues, and then start to deal with the political and longer term issues.

Most importantly, we much each do our bit to get the economy running again. Drastic and immediate reduction of consumption (no matter how uncomfortable) is the only way to achieve this within the next few days and weeks.

[Dave A]

Perhaps the greatest benefit that will come of this current crisis is more widespread attention to energy issues and energy conservation in South Africa.

I agree we need to look at our energy consumption - but I see a difference between the short term and medium to long term priorities.

When it comes to the extent of the immediate problem, it is emerging that the culprit in chief may well be a failure to deliver the fuel fast enough to feed Eskom's generators. This time around it is not a "peak demand" problem and we need to adjust our thinking accordingly.

The quick fix is for Eskom to improve their coal delivery, whilst we as consumers do what we can to lessen demand.

Short term we need to reduce unnescessary consumption. Installing alternative energy solutions falls into medium and long term planning, although of course the best time to start implimenting is now.

[duncan drennan]

When it comes to the extent of the immediate problem, it is emerging that the culprit in chief may well be a failure to deliver the fuel fast enough to feed Eskom's generators. This time around it is not a "peak demand" problem and we need to adjust our thinking accordingly.

The quick fix is for Eskom to improve their coal delivery, whilst we as consumers do what we can to lessen demand.

I'm not so sure that this is the main culprit. In the report they mentioned that there were 3700MW of planned outages, and 5000MW of unplanned outages (total of about 22% loss of supply) in the week of January 14. These are the reasons they gave,

• Boiler Tube leaks/failure
• Various smaller equipment failure
• Generator output reductions (load losses) as a result of coal quality
• Problems with coal supply

Yes, coal supply has played a role in this, but it all comes back to demand. The systems (maintenance, coal delivery, etc.) are not in place to deal with such a small reserve margin.

One little thing not working as planned (from a broken circuit breaker to a late coal delivery) sends ripples through the whole system, placing more strain on the resources that are working correctly.

Yes, Eskom needs to sort out their coal supply. Yes, they need to look at increasing the margin. And yes, they need to draw in the right skills to manage all of this.

But, the reality is that if we don't all change out habits, this crisis will turn into a disaster.

[Dave A]

this crisis will turn into a disaster.

This isn't a disaster already

Just a question on the maths - what is our total capacity supposed to be again? I thought it was more the 39 000 MW.

[duncan drennan]

From the doc released on Friday it is around 39000MW. Here is the expansion plan.

[Dave A]

Odd. I seemed to remember a number in the 40's - kinda like me

[duncan drennan]

If you look at the figure on pg 10, then the installed capacity is supposed to be around 42GW, but the operational capacity is lower at around 40GW. Possibly they are quoting operational capacity in that table.

[IanF]

Duncan
Great link thanks. I can't believe how much the electricity usage has gone up in the 90s. Was this a lot chrome alloy plants going up. We have always had the big users like Alusaf Iscor Samancor MSA etc.

[Chatmaster]

What truly worries me is the fact that the government might be focusing on the wrong short term solutions problem. They are looking at consumers to help solve this problem, but the real solution seems to be that Eskom are not running their coal plants at the rate they should run. I mean surely if some of the coal plants are down on their production, surely that is the first step in the process? What amazes me even more is that Eskom must surely loose profits because of their under production.

[duncan drennan]

In the governments response they said that draft amendments to the electricity regulation act would be out for comment by 30 Jan. 04 Feb and still waiting....anyone seen anything about this?

[duncan drennan]

I managed to find the draft amendments on the DME's website. Mainly has to do with what the licensees (i.e. municipalities) have to prohibit by 2010. It's interesting, but I'll add some comments later.

[duncan drennan]

So I've gone through the proposed regulations and made a list of what the licensees (municipalities) have to do.

• Incandescent lights must be replaces with energy efficient ones.
• Unoccupied buildings' lights must be turned off.
• No street lights should be on during the day.
• New dwellings with a value over R750000 must include solar geysers.
• Dwellings larger than 300m2 must include solar gesyers.
• All new installations must have a geyser blanket.
• Office blocks, hospitals, hotels, resorts, and shopping complexes must incorporate solar water heating by 2010.
• All geysers must be able to be turned off remotely by 2010.
• All heating, ventilation and cooling systems (HVAC) must be able to be turned off remotely by 2010.
• Swimming pool pumps and heating must be able to be turned off remotely (interestingly no date is set for this).
• Street lights must be fitted with energy efficient bulbs.
• Time use tariffs for customers who consume more than 500kWh a month, before 2010.

Read the full blog post

Certainly the two that stick out are that HVAC must be able to turned off remotely (you will certainly notice that!) and that consumers over 500kWH/month will be put onto a time use tariff (different rates at different times).

How do you think the time use tariff change will affect your business?

[Dave A]

500 kWh per month is a pretty low threshold, even for an average domestic household.

I've created a snap survey on Survey Monkey.

To take the survey on your average monthly electricity consumption, click here

I'll post a link to results later.