The human face of recession.

[Frankincense]

@tec0:
Quote: "...then perhaps we can get to the important stuff like how to deal with 33% loss of revenue we are facing this year... and total job loss for 2009."



Come on Buddy...no one is going anywhere...the stats of the recession have been exhaustively studied and discussed. We all know what caused the reccession. Reckless lending by frauds in the Banks & FED. Worse is to come and that's the point of this conversation moving to an elevated topic - so high it is in fact moving into the Heavens...Religion and the meaning of life and how to live it is far more important.......especially when worse is to come....

[tonyflanigan]

um, dunno how to say this, but the alleged recession that seems to have the rest of South Africa cringeing, still has to find its way to us. We had a great year last year, and this year is looking to double or treble last years T/O. Recession is an opportunity to capitalize on you (God-given) gifts. Crying and whining will not get you anywhere, action, positive targetted action will.

[Frankincense]

OK tecO: Have fun...some predictions for the gold price… we start with the Guidotti-Greenspan rule, which states that a country’s reserves should equal short-term external debt (one-year or less maturity). No rocket science. So basically this rule implies that if you can't pay off all of your foreign debts in the next 12 months, you're a terrible credit risk, and if things are really bad, you’re staring default in the face.

The rule is named after Pablo Guidotti – Argentine former deputy minister of finance – and Alan Greenspan. Guidotti first stated the rule in a G-33 seminar in 1999, while Greenspan widely publicized it in a speech at the World Bank. Guzman Calafell and Padilla del Bosque found that the ratio of reserves to external debt is a relevant predictor of an external crisis: http://www.g24.org/guzm2tgm.pdf

Let’s look at the U.S. reserves:

· Gold = 8133.5 tonnes = 261.5 million ounces = $300 billion worth

· Oil = 725 million barrels = $58 billion worth

· Foreign currency = $136 billion worth


So total reserves of about $500 billion.

According to the U.S. Treasury, $2 trillion worth of debt will mature in the next 12 months. Foreigners own 44% of that, which means the U.S. owes foreign creditors at least $880 billion in the next 12 months, and this alone exceeds the total US reserves. Then there is the predicted budget deficit of $1.5 trillion over the next year. So total funding requirements is about $3.5 trillion over the next 12 months.

Total domestic savings in the U.S. is about $600 billion annually, so even putting all of that into U.S. Treasury debt, leaves the U.S. $2.9 trillion short. Quite a royal mess.

Question: Where is the money going to come from? Definitely not from kind strangers.
Answer: Helicopter Ben & his printing press.
Ergo: plenty downside for the US dollar.

Now let’s look at where gold might go… starting with current US reserves and the value thereof:

Attachment (hover your cursor over the *.png pic file to see it's name - or open it)

What follows is a very simple analysis, as the real world is affected by many other variables, but let’s assume the ratio of gold/oil/forex remains the same, then let’s look at what the price of gold and oil must be in order to equal the US short term debt requirements.

Scenario 1 – prices required to match the $880 billion owed to foreign creditors: Attachment

Scenario 2 – prices required to match the $2 trillion short term debt maturing in 12 months:Attachment

Scenario 3 – prices required to match the $3.5 trillion total funding requirement (ST debt + budget deficit): Attachment

2010 will be a tough year!

and this doesn't make pushing Gold value up any easier...http://www.viewzone.com/fakegold.html

[tec0]

Are you sure you want me to start with religion?

Well ok. So the basic question will be why we have religion. What makes it so important? So we discovered the “god� particle a few years ago and by then people thought that it had to exist. One may call it faith others will simply argue that creation has to start somehow. AKA the divine spark.

If so why life? Why not synthetic life... It has been argued that living forever will be hell on earth and that we cannot begin to understand as to why our bodies was designed to fail in the first place. As for the explanations face the fact “they don’t compute� we are not here for a lifelong test we are here to survive as long as possible this fact is enforced by “modern medicine�

If so then why be fallible? Why must the mind be fallible and more importantly why must the body be fallible. These questions are is the argument between religion and technology. See religion needs fallibility in order to give solace basically it is there business to do just that. But if we where infallible both in body and in mind then wars, poverty and all the other “bad� stuff would never exist because we will be incapable to make mistakes but that being said would we still need religion?

Secondly there is the “suffering� factor that cannot be ignored. I do not belief for a moment any person will allow another to suffer if he or she had the stability and wealth to help. But this is proven wrong because we have the rich and then we have everyone else. Face it we live we die and it feels like we can’t stop this horrible destructive individuals that like to hurt and kill others. And this brings me to the most important question of all: can belief protect you?

Well there is some evidence that points to yes but it is NOT the norm and that part worries me. So basically if it is your time it is your time and that brings in destiny is it even real? Again random events will point to yes but try and explain that to the murder-victims family...

Your tern Francois

[desA]

... It is time South Africa becomes independent again. And that means to stop asking for money and start with innovation. We used to be good at it...

If only you knew how correct this is.

A true story. I ended up on a flight from East London to Jhb, with Nconde Balfour sitting next to me. We got chatting about SA & the unemployment.

I asked him what was being done about generating jobs. The reply : "We need the unemployed to come to us & tell what what they need".

My answer was : "They are unemployed & poor, because precisely because they do not have ideas. Your job, as government, is to facilitate & think ahead. To create the climate where new ideas can flourish & new jobs be created."

The answer : was none.

Listen. Identify what South Africans are really good at. Build vision. Build expertise & focus. Create the environment for expansion. Most importantly, set up an international marketing team from the government to go out & sell SA products into the world.

Just look at the 'Made in Thailand' concept. I know the Director behind this government thrust. He has headed up trade missions around the world. When Thailand needs export business, he activates the embassy staff in the target country & they set up linkages between Thai suppliers & end users. Go get it tigers...

Oh, in the end, Balfour was kind-enough to fish his business card out of his luggage on the carousel, with all his bodyguards around us laughing their heads off. He was a thoroughly nice man & I wish him well.

[tec0]

Fact is agriculture is the “end game� Once all the mines close and we have only our land to work with then we will see the truth and importance of agriculture. Yes, this is the ultimate investment. Imagine having more food that we can possibly need? That is true wealth.

I have written about this before and I will say it over and over again. Build a nuclear power plant, use it to drive a massif water-purification-system and a massif pumping-network and start getting clean water where we need it.

Whit this emplace the sky is the limit! We can generate food, wealth and financial stability within a few short years. More importantly with farming you can generate mass work and that is what we need!

[Dave A]

He was a thoroughly nice man & I wish him well.

Being likable is the stock in trade of politicians. So is the art of not saying "no" without saying "yes." Our lot is pretty smooth, alright.

They're all perfectly agreeable, but doesn't that lack of vision and insight trouble you? Are they really fit for the job?

[desA]

Being likable is the stock in trade of politicians. So is the art of not saying "no" without saying "yes." Our lot is pretty smooth, alright.

They're all perfectly agreeable, but doesn't that lack of vision and insight trouble you? Are they really fit for the job?

This is so very true of any politician. Honestly.

I think that SE Asia has taught some excellent lessons in understanding that politicians are only ever in it for themselves. Corruption is endemic.

If the politicans cannot be trusted, then, to guide a nation to prosperity - because, they can't - who then is going to fill the leadership vacuum required to create vision & initiate change?

NGO's? No, because they are also political & are also only in it for themselves.

Industry? How to get the direction, motivation & movitation?

Does the government have a Trade Mission group who understand how to market SA products & skills in the international arena?

[tec0]

First of lets understand why we need politicians? We need them to represent, plan, and structure thus allowing for stability. We need them as representation and to communicate our concerns to the world and in return allow the world to communicate with us thus a politician is a conduit and more to the point they must make the right investments for all of us.

Is this the truth? I don’t belief so because if you see the amount of money we need just keep our politicians going then we might as well consider that the system has failed. If enough people demand that an agricultura systeml must be considered then our government must investigate the possibility. However history shows that government will take its time and in the end will not give a satisfactory outcome.

If the government wants success then allow the people to grow. Build the power-plant, purification-plant and water-network-system and give us the people the ability to grow into a success. With enough fresh water and earth there is nothing we as humans can’t do.

Wealth always starts as an investment, and then it grows into an enterprise. Face it we need this, we as a people need this and we as a nation need this system to be build, and put into place because only with abundance can we have true wealth.

[Dave A]

Another question I've got is do we really need 400 of these windbags in parliament? Wouldn't 50 or so do just as well?

Given that the bigger the committee the less productive it becomes, I suspect we'd actually get a lot more out of a smaller parliament.