What is Mugabe's problem?

[Chatmaster]

Thabo Mbeki is what I like to call a perception manager. He manage to convince people that he has leadership qualities, however he lacks the true nature of a leader, being a leader! Mmmmmmm that was a weird statement.... I guess I am saying that he has proven himself once more for being unable to handle criminals and people unable to do their job. He fired the Deputy Minister of health for doing her job, but are unable to act when he faces true challenges (ESKOM, Crime, AIDS etc.). He simply is a weak leader with the ability to manage perception, in my opinion

[Graeme]

A recent article by Peter Osborne, writing in The Spectator is about the best summing up of the situation in Zimbabwe that I have come across so far:

“…………… Basically, President Mugabe has only three options, and time is running out very fast indeed.
The first of these is to mount a coup d’etat, (this was written before the decision to re-count votes in certain areas) the solution which is preferred by Mugabe’s inner circle. Significantly, it seems to be favoured by General Constantine Chiwenga, commander in chief of the armed forces, and by Air Force Marshall Perence Shiri, Mugabe’s blood relation and close ally.
It must be borne in mind that senior figures such as these do not merely stand to lose power if Mugabe loses, they also face the prospect of being brought to justice for the crimes of the Mugabe regime. It was Perence Shiri, for instance, who led the North Korean-trained Fifth Brigades in the Matabeleland genocide of the early 1980’s.
The problem with the idea of a coup d’etat (or vote revision) is not really the international condemnation that would inevitably result. The Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) might not like it, but under the prostrate guidance of Thabo Mbeki it would never lift a finger.
The true problem is different: there are real reasons to doubt whether commanders like Shiri (whose Chinese Mig fighters were buzzing low over Bulawayo in an act of naked intimidation when I was there two weeks ago) have the support of their troops. There is overwhelming anecdotal evidence that ordinary soldiers and policemen, even some members of the feared Central Intelligence Organisation, have turned against Mugabe. The director of intelligence, Happyton Bonyongwe, is said to be quietly supporting Tsvangirai.

Mugabe’s second option is to declare the recent elections null and order a re-run. There is striking evidence that that the President is preparing the way for this. He is already taking revenge, for example, on the hapless Zimbabwe Electoral Commission, several of whose members have been arrested over the last few days. In a marvellous irony, they are being accused of rigging the result against Zanu PF.
If the President calls for a second election, it will be marked by all the intimidation and horror which was to a certain extent lacking on 29 March. Mugabe’s Green Bombers, his licensed torturers and murderers who bear close resemblance to Hitler’s Brownshirts, are already off the leash.

Finally, Mugabe could stand down. Here one key ingredient would be a guarantee that he - and the scores of murderers and torturers who are linked to him - can live the rest of their lives in the peace and tranquillity they have denied so many others. Granting Mugabe immunity from prosecution is hard to engineer and would be unpalatable for some. Others may judge it well worthwhile.

Meanwhile everyone waits for the old man’s next move. I am told by a friend who runs one of Zimbabwe’s very few remaining factories that the mood amongst the workforce has changed very sharply over the last 48 hours. Hope has turned to bemusement and then - on Tuesday morning - to a silent pervasive sense of terror, as if something horrible might be just about to happen.�