Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 13

Thread: Expose Economists

Hybrid View

Previous Post Previous Post   Next Post Next Post
  1. #1
    Platinum Member Marq's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Posts
    1,297
    Thanks
    73
    Thanked 283 Times in 216 Posts

    Expose Economists

    I now realise why I generally do not start new threads.
    I never know which section to classify these subjects into.

    Take the attached as an example - my favourite subject 'economists'. This should be a serious subject, could be state of the country stuff or possibly business philosophies and that sort of thing, perhaps even a warning beware of economists type subject thread. There could even be an 'I told you so' section.

    So after great consideration and a whole minute thought on this problem, I figured that they should just be relegated to the Jokes section. Oh now I have denigrated the Bar Rail section with this decision and thought pattern.........

    Anyway - this is from the May issue of the Rand Exposé – the Fundamental Truth

    For FAR too long now, the South African public – and yes! – you and the investing and business world – have been fed up with the biggest lot of mumbo jumbo from hamstrung economists and out-of-touch “financial experts” regarding the South African economy and the inherent value of the Rand.

    These are the very same persons that painted a rosy picture week after week of an economy that was rollicking along, with a future as bright as a thousand candles (before or after Eskom).

    And now, SUDDENLY, the Rand’s sudden and unexpected fall catches them totally by surprise, forcing a change of
    tune and a looking for all sorts of excuses as to why this has happened, and perhaps why it shouldn’t have.

    Now, this might have been all right, because the beauty of being an economist is that your job is always secure, no
    matter how much gobbledygook you speak and write.
    I had a good chuckle anyway.....and have given up taking anything about or by economists seriously which is why this post is here under the bar rail section.

  2. #2
    Site Caretaker Dave A's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Location
    Durban, South Africa
    Posts
    22,648
    Thanks
    3,304
    Thanked 2,676 Times in 2,257 Posts
    Blog Entries
    12
    The Bar Rail is only for 50 post+ members. Perhaps the business finance and sa economy forum? I'll move this thread if you want me to.

    I have to agree that economists of late have seemed more like soothsayers. Do these folk get paid for this?

  3. #3
    Silver Member Graeme's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    253
    Thanks
    73
    Thanked 19 Times in 18 Posts

    Economics

    Making predictions about a country's economy is rather like predicting the weather - there are just too many variables to ever hope to make a spot-on prediction. Economists do their best but really all they can offer is a likely result of an action: "do this and that will probably happen". I guess they keep their fingers crossed a lot of the time, but their opinion is better than nothing.

  4. #4
    Platinum Member Marq's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Posts
    1,297
    Thanks
    73
    Thanked 283 Times in 216 Posts
    Dave - you can move it if you like - I have no problem.

    Graeme - Talking about weather, you reminded me of that old one - Why did they invent economists? To make the weathermen look good.

  5. #5
    Diamond Member wynn's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Location
    east london
    Posts
    3,338
    Thanks
    548
    Thanked 625 Times in 524 Posts
    My pet 'peeve' is accountants.

    They see small business as a white page with a black line down the middle with income on one side and expenses on the other.

    Now as all SME's know the page is grey with a thin white line on either side with the income shaved to the minimum and the expenses loaded to the max.

    The grey area is where we try to make the income and try to cover the expenses, why don't they realise this?


  6. #6
    Site Caretaker Dave A's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Location
    Durban, South Africa
    Posts
    22,648
    Thanks
    3,304
    Thanked 2,676 Times in 2,257 Posts
    Blog Entries
    12
    Maybe it's a goals thing. There is a big difference between building value in a business and merely making a living out of it. I've got no complaints about the advice I've got from my accountants over the years.

    One thing is for sure, though - it's easier counting the money than making it.

  7. #7
    Email problem Karenwhe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Johannesburg
    Posts
    141
    Thanks
    7
    Thanked 23 Times in 17 Posts
    About economists, I have read a few articles lately.

    Now you'll know that John Loos (excuse spelling) was the economist at FNB that was saying over and over again how properties will grow, etc. etc. for at least the last 2 years (which is as far as I can remember right now). I even personally heard him speak and give a presentation mid last year (not to mention that I was in total shock).

    Since mid last year, I read recently an article when now he is no longer presented as an economist but a "property strategist" (for the same bank). I wonder why?

    Now don't get me wrong. I have full respect for those that learn so much to become an economist (heck my father is one), but when one goes so WRONG in predictions, I guess "property strategist" is a better title.

    But taking into consideration that he was a little bit wrong in all his predictions (yes sarcasm noted), I wonder if "property strategist" suits. He preaches now on the increases in prices seen in the townships.

    Ok, so does FNB now have a township strategy?

    Quote from article: (In Gauteng, these include Tsakane (56%), Mamelodi (48%), Soshanguve (44%), Kathlehong (41%) and Vosloorus (40%). Khayelitsha in Cape Town recorded a hefty 57% price growth in fourth quarter 2007 while the Durban townships of Kwa-Mashu and Umlazi saw house prices surge by 55% and 48% respectively.)

    I think this guy just missed a few classes in university when they spoke about down turns, because he doesn't seem to want to see them. When he is wrong he goes to the next place he can talk about massive growth. So, I guess any time a journalist needs someone positive to balance the article, they just call him and they are home free.

    In case you want to read the article it is on Property24.com just can't remember the link.

    Now that said, I have nothing against economist, but I do think that most people don't even understand them.

    As far as they are concerned I do like reading By Cees Bruggemans, Chief Economist FNB. He he take economies (not only SA as stand alone) in perspective without making "fortune telling" predictions.

    His last article I think was :Rumors of Mayhem, pretty cool stuff. But you be the judge.

    The point is:

    Economists are not supposed to be fortune tellers. They present the options from what happened in the past and what is in the present.

    What could happen in both ways. Professional strategists also do that.

    Strategists then also present various solutions to what they see as best action to the possible outcomes.

    But they are not fortune tellers. We sometime look at economists to tell us fortunes and then act on those "fortune telling" stories.

    This is because as human beings we need certainty to act, otherwise we don't know what to do.

    But in reality we should have plans to several probable outcomes and be flexible to each. The world is in motion at all times and certainty does not exist but only probable outcomes from a some facts from past and present that we can see.

    Any economist that engages is fortune telling is not an economist because they can't possibly be 100% sure of what will happen. No one can, absolutes don't exist. Loos tried to do that with conviction, that is wrong - and his fortune telling predictions were also wrong as the present shows.

    P.S. this is my own post somewhere else because i didn't feel like re-writing everything again .

  8. #8
    Platinum Member Marq's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Posts
    1,297
    Thanks
    73
    Thanked 283 Times in 216 Posts
    An Accountant's Life and insurance - next in line after economists for me:

    He was a very cautious man, who never romped or played.
    He never smoked, he never drank, nor even kissed a maid.
    And when up and passed and away, insurance was denied.
    For since he hadn't ever lived, they claimed he never died.

  9. #9
    Platinum Member Marq's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Posts
    1,297
    Thanks
    73
    Thanked 283 Times in 216 Posts
    But they are not fortune tellers. We sometime look at economists to tell us fortunes and then act on those "fortune telling" stories.
    Karen is quite right here. I don't know whether its the media or the economists that are to blame. The problem being, that if there is a tax issue, an economists has a view somewhere not a tax expert, if there is a interest rate hike and they are discussing property prices, an economist is hauled out to explain the situation not a property expert. I am sure there are many finance guys (accountant types, Wynn not the insurance types) that would be able to give a better picture on the various financial subjects rather than a banks economist who is guessing all the way.

    Perhaps economists are their own worst enemies in their quest to hog the limelight on views of the world around us? Or is it the media who are unskilled in finding the correct or alternative people and turn to the old faithful economists for an opinion?

  10. #10
    Email problem Karenwhe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Johannesburg
    Posts
    141
    Thanks
    7
    Thanked 23 Times in 17 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Marq View Post
    Or is it the media who are unskilled in finding the correct or alternative people and turn to the old faithful economists for an opinion?
    Media is skilled and may I add very skilled at one thing: Selling newspapers, which in turn is selling stories that make people read them - so that they can stay in business.

    Once people get that we are 90% home free from BS and 50% free to self-empowerment.

    A very close family member worked for newspapers she said: "the only thing you believe in a newspaper is the date in which it was printed and the name of the newspaper (and even then you need to assume there are no miss-prints)".

    I heard this when I was around 10 years old. I still till this date can't forget it.

Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast

Similar Threads

  1. How would an interest rate increase affect you?
    By I Robot in forum Business Finance Forum
    Replies: 97
    Last Post: 21-Apr-10, 01:31 PM

Tags for this Thread

Did you like this article? Share it with your favourite social network.

Did you like this article? Share it with your favourite social network.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •