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Thread: Heading for a downturn?

  1. #51
    Site Caretaker Dave A's Avatar
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    Then surely the figure would be quoted as retail profits?

    Vehicles and retail sales have always been good indicators of the financial health of the consumer. If we're trying to assess whether the economy is growing or shrinking, it's the volume that counts. The profit of retailers is not nearly as relevant as their volumes.

    It would be unsurprising to find that retail profits are affected by changes in volume, though

  2. #52
    Site Caretaker Dave A's Avatar
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    Some good news - CPI is back in the 3-6% range.
    South Africa's targeted consumer inflation slowed in line with expectations to 5,9% year-on-year in October, returning to the 3% to 6% target band for the first time in more than two-and-a-half years, official data showed on Wednesday.

    Statistics South Africa said annual headline consumer price index (CPI) slowed from 6,1% in September while it was unchanged on a monthly basis compared with 0,4% the previous month.

  3. #53
    Platinum Member sterne.law@gmail.com's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dave A View Post
    This will change very quickly if ESKOM gets its way. Even if the prediction of a 25% increase comes through, it will be tough to perform in this band width

  4. #54
    Site Caretaker Dave A's Avatar
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    ESKOM, the forex current account, the exchange rate, price of oil in Rands, food prices, pay increments... No shortage of stuff to burst the bubble.

    But at least we were able to claw it back this time around. When inflation starts running you wonder whether it's going to just accelerate away totally out of control.

  5. #55
    Diamond Member wynn's Avatar
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    OOPS!! now Dubai is putting pressure on the world markets????
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  6. #56
    Platinum Member Marq's Avatar
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    I still do not believe this cpi number.

    As a consumer, out there most days shopping for something or other, I see nothing but increased prices. Twolley for twolley (I buy more or less the same items and stuff on a regular basis) I reckon basic food and household stuff is up over 20% this year. My rates are through the roof at 500%, electricity...well you all know the story there, water - my bill is in excess of 1k every month now, last year was round about R300-R400. Communication costs from telkom, vodacom etc seem to be static. Medical care..wow can anybody afford this anymore, Clothing...mmm...maybe the same to cheaper on the basics. On the plus side petrol is probably about 10% overall down (15% compared to nov last year) But from Dec last year to what it is being increased to now it will be about 8% up year on year. Wages seem to be up about 8 - 10% average, yet no one has any bucks.

    This is a 'consumer' price index - I am not sure what else a consumer would configure into the argument for an inflation number......go figure.

    Unless you want to factor into the equation - Gill Marcus and the inflation targeting scenario with the need to impress with soothsayer economists, or the bum stats sa statististics that no one knows where the numbers come from, or a need to reduce worker demands and communist union activities, or how about the need to show we are no longer in a recession and produce some positive numbers out the hat for a great festive season BS.
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  7. #57
    Site Caretaker Dave A's Avatar
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    Interest on debt is down.
    Housing prices/accomodation costs - down or thereabouts.

    What's in this measured basket must be published somewhere.

  8. #58
    Platinum Member sterne.law@gmail.com's Avatar
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    The basket of goods used to measure CPI is a HUGE bone of contention. About 3/4 years ago, I had an Accounting lecturer who at the time had just resigned from his post as Financial something or other in a government position here in KZN. He was a contender for Mayor, so fairly high up. On chatting about CPI and teh like, he raised the point that the goods used to measure in no way are indicative of spending patterns of teh nation. A key point to show this, JEWELERY is in the calculation and as a fairly considerable percentage. Will be interesting to know the make up of this basket

  9. #59
    Site Caretaker Dave A's Avatar
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    I suspect the answer lies in one of the documents listed on this page about CPI from Stats SA. I had a tough time trying to fgure out which one dealt with the current basket, though.

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