Who do you think will be next president of the ANC?

[duncan drennan]

So who do you think will be the next president of the ANC? Not who you want, but who do you think is the most likely to become the next president of the ANC?

Oh, and who else should I add to the list?

[Dave A]

Geez. Talk about skipping the easy ones.

Looking from the outside it would look like JZ is the front-runner. But is there a possibility of a "compromise" candidate making the running...

An interesting list of possibles you've got there Mr. Drennan.

[duncan drennan]

An interesting list of possibles you've got there Mr. Drennan.

Anyone I've missed?

I'm still struggling to decide who my money is on. Maybe we should set up a kitty

[Dave A]

I'm trying to think of people with demonstrated strong influence within the party...
A real wild card - Trevor Manuel? I'm not sure he'd take the nomination though even if it came.

[stephanfx]

To be honest, I actually hope TS makes it, I really think that he might be able to make a positive contribution to this country, especially for 2010.

[duncan drennan]

Interesting perspective on the current president � I have no idea. Any thoughts on this article?

Niccolò Machiavelli observed, "a truly great man is ever the same under all circumstances; and if his fortune varies, exalting him at one moment and oppressing him at another, he himself never varies, but always preserves a firm courage, which is so closely interwoven with his character that every one can readily see that the fickleness of fortune has no power over him."

"The conduct of weak men" Machiavelli continued, "is very different. Made vain and intoxicated by good fortune, they attribute their success to merits which they do not possess, and this makes them odious and insupportable to all around them. And when they have afterwards to meet a reverse of fortune, they quickly fall into the other extreme, and become abject and vile."

South Africa's shifting of power relations in the early to mid-1990s provides ample support for the truth of this observation. For instance, there are numerous accounts of how Mbeki changed after coming into power.

Full story on MoneyWeb

[Dave A]

Quite a sharp article - in more ways than one.

As white South Africa lost power between 1992 and 1996 one could witness the reverse happening, with many once vain individuals becoming vile. There were numerous NP politicians who - having dutifully implemented apartheid in the name of white survival - joined a black nationalist ANC. There were also members of the old English establishment who made the strange journey from lording it over the liberation movements, when they were banned or in opposition, to cravenly defending the actions of the ANC in power.

Aint that the truth. One person who has really stood out from the crowd for sticking to principle in this transition though is Desmond Tutu.

If and when Mbeki's rivals for the ANC presidency finally declare themselves, it is not sufficient - in judging their fitness for office - to ask who they are, or how they have conducted themselves in the past. A further important question is whether they are likely to be changed by the immense power that will fall into their possession.

Oops!

[Dave A]

Are we seeing the start of some decidedly undemocratic tactics here? There seems to be a bit of a stir going on about assassination attempts, alleged overseas funding, and then this comment...

Intelligence Minister Ronnie Kasrils has denied that the report was the work of his agencies, including the National Intelligence Agency, the Independent said. Kasrils warned that "sinister elements" might try to exploit the current political climate in South Africa.
from M&G here

Current political climate? Ronnie seems to think we're at a delicate point, by the sounds of things.

[stephanfx]

Heard this morning on Morning Live about a top secret report about Angola and Lybian leaders funding Jacob Zuma to overthrow Mbeki. If this is the case, Jacob Zuma is really in the soup.

[Dave A]

I'm having trouble buying that - I just don't see Angola's or Libya's motivation in getting involved in something like that for starters.

This makes it likely that there has been some conjuring going on - and the big question is why?