Residential property rebound by 2010?

[Dave A]

Property prices remain under pressure.

A quick turnaround in the housing market was "improbable", Standard Bank said on Thursday as it released its latest Residential Property Gauge.

"Standard Bank's property book for the first nine months of 2009 revealed an average monthly decline of 4,2% in the median house price.

"This brings the number of monthly declines to 16 consecutive months," it said in a statement.

The September smoothed (random fluctuations removed) data yielded a rate of contraction of 5,2% year-on-year, the same decline as in August.

In real terms (inflation factored in), using its estimate of the CPI in September to deflate nominal house prices (inflation not accounted for), the decline in real house prices came to approximately 11,5%, Standard Bank said.

The smoothed growth rate for September showed that the value of the median residential properties financed by Standard Bank was R550 000.

Looking ahead, Standard Bank said important drivers of overall growth in the economy, such as the level of household income and debt, as well as the medium-term economic and financial outlook, were such that a quick turnaround in the housing market was improbable.
full story from M&G here

[Marq]

Middle-segment house prices were down by 3,4% year-on-year (y/y) to around R933 300 in August 2009 (-3,7% y/y in July and -3,8% y/y in May after revision). On a month-on-month basis, prices were up by a nominal 0,2% in August, after a marginal increase of 0,03% was recorded in July. In real terms, prices were down by 9,7% y/y in July this year, after declining by 10% y/y in June.

- So says the absa man last month here

The smoothed growth rate for September showed that the value of the median residential properties financed by Standard Bank was R550 000.

So what is the Standard bank actually saying.....
Smooth growth rate in a declining market?
They are only financing 60% of property values?
They don't agree with with absa's numbers?