Trader Vic is calling for a two percent interest rate hike.
Now that would certainly cool off the economy - big time. But the social impact would be huge. It'll certainly put a sizable dent in the prospects of improving unemployment figures and low cost financing for BEE type initiatives....AN URGENT two percentage point hike in lending rates is the only medicine for the present overheated credit driven SA economy. Tomorrow, or one week ahead of the scheduled MPC meeting would be a good day to administer this medicine.
The need for the two percentage point hike in the repo rate is obvious.
Traditionally a one percentage point hike in interest rates was required to offset the negative impact of a depreciation of 10% in the value of our currency.
We just had a sharp trade weighted devaluation of some 25% to 30%. This will fuel inflation and to ensure that this does not erode the possible benefits of devaluation a compensatory hike in interest rates of between two and three percentage points is absolutely necessary.
full story from Fin24 here
I got shot down in a meeting on Friday for even saying such a thing, but I can't help thinking this is 1997/98 revisited, perhaps?