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Thread: Peak oil

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    just me duncan drennan's Avatar
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    Peak oil

    I've never quite understood the term "Peak Oil", but this blog post put it pretty clearly for me,

    For the past few months I have been reading all I can about Peak Oil. The basic idea is that the global oil supply will soon (around 2010) be less than oil demand. As oil is so fundamental to our lives (all transport, manufacturing, fertilisers for agriculture) this will cause big problems. Some people think modern society will end (literally), others predict a global depression, and some the death of the suburbs as the world reconfigures itself for a low energy lifestyle.

    Here are some common predictions that I rate as plausible:

    • Oil prices will sky rocket, like over $150/barrel, causing the price of everything to increase, i.e. high inflation.
    • Stock markets tumble as every stock is based on the assumption of continuing economic growth sustained by cheap energy.
    • Widespread unemployment as whole industries collapse, i.e. “demand destruction”. Starvation in less developed countries (no fertilisers)
    • People with very high debt levels (the norm in Australia) will be in deep trouble. Overpriced housing markets collapse. The “perfect storm” for a modern economy.
    • As the taxation base decreases the government will be less help. For example they won’t be able to fund a switch to renewables, pay unemployment benefits, fix blackouts.


    After a few months of research I am convinced Peak Oil is for real. While I am not in the survivalist camp (I think modern society will pull through) my best guess is that there will be very tough times for the world economy.

    Read the full blog post on Beer, Coffee and a little DSP
    For more info you can also look at Peak Oil on Wikipedia.

    What I never realised was how close (2010) the predictions are for the peak oil event to occur. Even the optimistic predictions are 2020-2030. It does not leave us with much time before oil prices start climbing dramatically.

    So how much are Sasol shares at the moment?
    Last edited by duncan drennan; 28-Sep-07 at 01:27 PM.
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    Site Caretaker Dave A's Avatar
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    As a service based organisation, this has been a possibility I've gently considered for a little while now. We've already seen serious increments in oil costs. When oil broke $30 a barrel, I did not share the widely published views that this was a temporary aberration.

    My question is whether this is going to be an "event", or a break even point we are going to be flirting with for some time to come. Because frankly, I think we've been flirting with it for a little while already - hence the already dramatic price increases.
    The trouble with opportunity is it normally comes dressed up as work.

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    just me duncan drennan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dave A View Post
    My question is whether this is going to be an "event", or a break even point we are going to be flirting with for some time to come. Because frankly, I think we've been flirting with it for a little while already - hence the already dramatic price increases.
    If you have a look at the graph on Wikipedia it is not an "event" as such - I just used that word for lack of something better to note the time frame. We're already on this path, it seems to just be a question of when things really start to break down — a little bit like the sub–prime lending saga....
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    Peak Oil is the Biggest Scam of the 21st Century. There's plenty of Oil, but the Scamsters prefer it to remain underground while the Oil Frenzy Ritual takes place on a Daily Basis at the Chicago Futures Exchange, selling Oil that is still Underground. Real cost of Oil US$3.00 per Barrel. Real Price of Oil
    US$80.00 per Barrel. There's No Business like "Panic Business"

    Read Article :

    The Peak Oil Scam

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    PEAK OIL IS A CORRUPT GLOBALIST SCAM

    PEAK OIL IS A CORRUPT GLOBALIST SCAM

    They make the profits on creating artificial scarcity.

    “Peak oil” is pure military-industrial-complex propaganda.

    Publicly available CFR and Club of Rome strategy manuals from 30 years ago say that a global government needs to control the world population through neo-feudalism by creating artificial scarcity. Now that the social architects have de-industrialized the United States, they are going to blame our economic disintegration on lack of energy supplies.

    Globalization is all about consolidation. Now that the world economy has become so centralized through the Globalists operations, they are going to continue to consolidate and blame it on the West’s “evil” overconsumption of fossil fuels, while at the same time blocking the development and integration of renewable clean technologies.

    In other words, Peak oil is a scam to create artificial scarcity and drive prices up. Meanwhile, alternative fuel technologies which have been around for decades are intentionally suppressed.
    Last edited by Dave A; 29-Sep-07 at 08:31 AM.

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    just me duncan drennan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by World_Of_Elites View Post
    Peak Oil is the Biggest Scam of the 21st Century. There's plenty of Oil, but the Scamsters prefer it to remain underground while the Oil Frenzy Ritual takes place on a Daily Basis at the Chicago Futures Exchange, selling Oil that is still Underground.
    A couple of things come to mind.

    The term "Peak Oil" is not concerned with the absolute amount of oil available, but rather the rate of production versus the rate of consumption (I'm not too sure where to look to find out that kind of info).

    Secondly, scam or no scam, we are sitting with oil prices of around $80 per barrel which we are willing to pay - that is a fact. If prices continue to climb (artificial or real) it is going to require action - and soon - else we will find ourselves in a bit of a bind.
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    Site Caretaker Dave A's Avatar
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    Well, the conspiracy (if that's what it is) is gaining ground.
    World oil production has already peaked and will fall by half as soon as 2030, according to a report that also warns that extreme shortages of fossil fuels will lead to wars and social breakdown.

    The German-based Energy Watch Group (EWG) was to release its study in London on Monday saying that global oil production peaked in 2006 -- much earlier than most experts had expected. The report, which predicts that production will now fall by 7% a year, comes after oil prices set new records almost every day last week, on Friday hitting more than $90 a barrel.

    "The world soon will not be able to produce all the oil it needs as demand is rising while supply is falling. This is a huge problem for the world economy," said Hans-Josef Fell, the EWG's founder and the German MP behind the country's successful support system for renewable energy.

    The report's author, Joerg Schindler, said its most alarming finding was the steep decline in oil production after its peak, which he said is now behind us.

    The results are in contrast to projections from the International Energy Agency, which says there is little reason to worry about oil supplies at the moment.
    full story from M&G here
    With oil prices going through $90 last week, either some really ruthless bastards have got their hand on the tap, or we've genuinely got a really serious problem here.
    The trouble with opportunity is it normally comes dressed up as work.

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    Would a shortage of oil and a panic not also be detrimental to these companies? Think about it. If it causes too much of a scare a hunt for alternate sources of energy will begin on a much larger scale than is happening now. If an efficient and cost effective alternative is found we won't need as much oil. So business 101 tells us less demand = cheaper oil.

    Point is the big companies are after big cash.

    So what makes most sense to me is to hide the Peak oil idea for as long as possible until it actually does become a bit of an issue for you as an oil company. This will delay alternate energy sources from chewing into their profits too much. Then once it starts becoming an issue you start pushing the Peak oil idea to push up the prices as high as possible for maximum profit until the very end when it's all gone. This way they get maximum profit.

    That's what makes sense to me, so I wouldn't just write off this peak oil idea just yet. If it's true it could be a great cause for concern as I'm sure most would have figured out now!
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    Email problem RKS Computer Solutions's Avatar
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    What it really comes down to is us humans not wanting to play our part, not worrying enough about Mother Earth and her resources. Other resources are available today, and albeit at a higher cost to implement, can save us millions in the long haul... DSD, you've been preaching about CFL's and other technologies that can be used to save energy, and I truly hope somewhere it gets stuck in the head of someone who can really make a difference.

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    just me duncan drennan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RKS Computer Solutions View Post
    ...and I truly hope somewhere it gets stuck in the head of someone who can really make a difference.
    You see, this is where we all have to be careful.

    I believe that each of us are the important people in this whole thing. Assuming the worst, that oil prices will skyrocket, polar ice will melt, cities will be flooded and there will be much gnashing of teeth and wailing, then the only thing that will make a difference is everyone taking action. If you can't afford to drive, you'll walk, cycle, use public transport etc. If you can't afford electricity, you'll simply only use the bare essentials.

    The question here is how much pain do you require before you will change your actions? Or are you able to change now, reduce your consumption, and possibly end up being happier than you expected?

    The choice, and responsibility is ours — yours and mine.
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